Top NHL Props for Saturday: Jones Over/Under 30.0 Total Saves?
Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA Today Sports
Saturday features a spit slate with only two games, but there are still plenty of opportunities to look for some potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are three props I’m eyeing for games at 3 p.m. and 8 p.m. ET.
Lightning W Yanni Gourde under 2.5 shots on goal (-125)
3 p.m. ET
Boston is one of the few teams in the NHL that can match Tampa Bay’s depth, and the Bruins’ stout defense (36th percentile in shot attempts allowed) could certainly be the difference in this series. Attacking an under from a low-volume Lightning shooter might be sharp. Of all Tampa Bay skaters, Gourde has the under that stands out the most, as he’s averaged only 1.67 shots per game over the past month (57th percentile). He’s actually registered three or more in six of his last 11 games, but his range of outcomes has been large: In each of the other five games in question, he had no more than one shot. With the Lightning owning the slate’s lowest Expected Corsi For, Gourde seems likely to hit the lower end of his production range.
Golden Knights W Jonathan Marchessault over 3.5 shots on goal (-140)
8 p.m. ET
He had only three shots in Game 1, but doubling down on the over with Marchessault in Game 2 seems reasonable. Based on his recent shooting spike, he remains undervalued: Very few of these player props have moved considerably since the start of the playoffs, and he has averaged 4.25 shots per game over the past month (99th percentile) vs. 3.48 over the past year (97th). The Sharks have gone the other way defensively in the short term, ranking in the 97th percentile in shot attempts allowed over that same time after allowing the sixth-fewest average shots on goal (30.3) during the regular season. Because of the favorable matchup and recent history, Marchessault looks like a good bet yet again. Vegas owns the slate’s highest Expected Corsi For.
Sharks G Martin Jones under 30.0 total saves (-115)
8 p.m. ET
Over the past month, the Golden Knights have caused opposing goaltenders to accrue an average of 29.25 saves, so on the surface this line looks relatively efficient. However, skewing those results is a first-round 54-save game by Jonathan Quick in double overtime. If you remove that outlier, the average drops to 27.0 opponent saves per game. As noted above, the Sharks have certainly allowed more shots recently than they have in the regular season, but it’s possible Vegas (as a team) could continue to get it done with efficiency instead of shooting volume. Jones owns the lowest Save Prediction on the slate.
Pictured above: Martin Jones