The Montreal Canadiens (20-12-6) and Florida Panthers (20-15-2) meet in an NHL Eastern Conference matchup tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EST at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Fla. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN+.
The Panthers are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (+105o / -125u). The Panthers are a -148 favorite to win outright, while the Canadiens are +124 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Canadiens vs. Panthers predictions and NHL picks.
Canadiens vs. Panthers Odds, Pick
| Canadiens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 6.5 +105o / -125u | +124 |
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 6.5 +105o / -125u | -148 |
- Canadiens vs. Panthers Spread: Panthers -1.5 (+165 ), Canadiens +1.5 (-200)
- Canadiens vs. Panthers Over/Under: 6.5 (+105o / -125u)
- Canadiens vs. Panthers Moneyline: Canadiens +124, Panthers -148
Canadiens vs. Panthers Preview
Montreal Canadiens
There is no denying the Montreal Canadiens have played strong hockey this season, but their success largely stems from an offense-heavy approach that features a high finishing rate and a strong power play percentage. Those factors are not knocks on the team by any means, but when combined with poor underlying metrics, regression often follows.
Montreal has failed to generate high-danger scoring chances, ranking in the bottom half of the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). Sooner or later, those low-percentage shots that keep finding the back of the net are likely to stop doing so.
Meanwhile, the Canadiens have struggled on the other side of the ice. This season, the Habs rank 20th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Backing up this porous defense is goaltender Samuel Montembeault, who is projected to start Tuesday evening.
Through 15 appearances this season, Montembeault is 5-6-1 with a fade-worthy .857 save percentage and a 3.65 goals-against average.
Florida Panthers
Montembeault’s woes are likely to continue against the Florida Panthers, a team he has struggled against historically, posting a .892 save percentage through 10 career meetings. Across the ice, Daniil Tarasov is slated to get the nod for Florida.
Tarasov has fared better than Montembeault this season, outranking him in both save percentage and goals-against average. That said, Tarasov’s job is made easier by playing behind a more efficient team.
Entering this matchup, the Panthers outrank the Canadiens in xGF/60, xGA/60 and expected goal share. Add in home-ice advantage, and there is little reason not to like Florida in this matchup.
Canadiens vs. Panthers Prediction
The only reason the Panthers are listed at just -140 on the moneyline is that they are playing on the second half of a back-to-back following Monday’s tilt against the Washington Capitals. While that is worth noting, it does not outweigh the fact that the defending Stanley Cup champions are stronger in all three zones.
Montreal won all four matchups between these two teams last season, and Florida will look to avenge last year’s regular-season sweep.
Pick: Panthers Moneyline (-140 | Play to -145)
