Bruins vs. Blues Stanley Cup Game 3 Betting Odds, Preview: Is the Market Still Too High on Boston?
Winslow Townson, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Alex Pietrangelo, Carl Gunnarsson
- The St. Louis Blues are -116 favorites over the Boston Bruins in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final.
- Michael Leboff analyzes the betting market from the first two games and breaks down Game 3:
St. Louis Blues at Boston Bruins Stanley Cup Game 3 Betting Odds
- Bruins odds: -104
- Blues odds: -116
- Over/Under: 5
- Time: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
- TV: NBC
>> All odds as of 12 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NHL odds and track your bets
The St. Louis Blues stormed back into the Stanley Cup Final with a terrific performance in Game 2. The Blues were far and away the better team on Wednesday night and were rewarded with a 3-2 overtime victory.
The Blues looked like a different team after a dud in Game 1. At 5-on-5 St. Louis attempted 16 more shot attempts, created nine more scoring chances and generated 2.09 expected goals while allowing 1.2 expected goals against than Boston.
If you look at the overall numbers from the first two games, this series looks like a coin flip, even though both of the individual games were dominated by one team.
Shot Share: St. Louis 52.9%
High-Danger Scoring Chances: Boston 51%
Expected Goals: St. Louis 50.2%
All numbers at 5-on-5 and adjusted for score + venue. Courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
Game 3 Betting Analysis
The Blues opened in the -120/-125 range for Game 3 but the Bruins have taken the early money and have moved to -104 according to The Action Network’s consensus odds.
Let’s see how that compares to the first two games of this best-of-7:
- Game 1: Boston -180 (62.7% implied probability) vs. St. Louis +162 (37.8%)
- Game 2: Boston -155 (59.3%) vs. St. Louis +140 (40.7%)
- Game 3: St. Louis -116 (51.3%) vs. Boston -104 (48.7%)
It’s definitely interesting that there was a pretty sizable adjustment towards the Blues from Game 1 to Game 2, despite Boston winning the opener in impressive fashion.
Even though the Bruins did win Game 1, I think the line for that game flattered them. Boston is a terrific team, but St. Louis’ statistical profile isn’t that far off from Boston’s and I don’t think the gulf between these two teams is as wide as the market for the first game implied it was.
The market seemed to correct for Game 2, but did it come down enough?
If you adjust for home-ice advantage (approximately 5% in NHL), the Game 2 line suggested the Bruins would be roughly a -119 (54.3%) favorite over the Blues on neutral ice. That price, to me, is still a little bit steep
I think the current odds are pretty close to appropriate, but after the market adjustment from the opening, I am closer to the Blues than the Bruins, especially with Boston missing defenseman Matt Grzelcyk.
Grzelcyk may not be a headline-grabber but he’s an effective puck-moving defenseman and his loss dings Boston’s depth on the blueline.
Once again I expect most of the bets to be on the Bruins, who are still the series favorite despite losing home-ice advantage, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the line to continue to inch towards Boston as the game gets closer.
If you are looking to bet the Bruins in Game 3, you probably should get your wager in as soon as possible. Considering that the Bruins have been the more popular side in the first two games and are still attracting the majority of bets for Game 3, it’s hard to imagine this line will re-adjust towards the Blues before puck drop.
As for me, I’m happy to sit back and hope the price on the Blues continues to lengthen. At the time of writing St. Louis is -110 at some shops and I think that is a good number on a team that should be closer to -120 at home.