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2018-19 Premier League Betting Update: Title, Trends and Relegation

Jan 07, 2019 3:49 PM EST
Credit:

Getty Images. Pictured: Man City’s Leroy Sane taking a shot against Liverpool

  • The 2018-19 Premier League season has completed 21 of 38 weeks and futures have been on the move.
  • Liverpool (-125) are now odds-on favorites to win the EPL title but Man City (+125) are right on their heels.
  • We break down all the title odds, relegation chances, season trends and more.

We’re more than halftway through the 2018-19 Premier League season, so let’s re-group and take a look at updated futures and trends.

League Standings

Liverpool holds a four-point lead over Manchester City after 21 games. The two title contenders don’t play each other again after City’s 2-1 victory last week. Tottenham are six points off the pace and still have a game against both Liverpool and City.

Title Odds

  • Manchester City were massive -350 favorites in mid-November, but a couple shock losses in December made the title race very interesting.
  • Liverpool were +400 in the preseason and +425 in November, but are now the odds-on favorites (-125) to win the title.
  • Liverpool did reach as high as -175 before losing at Manchester City, 2-1, on January 3rd. That loss dropped Liverpool’s odds from -175 to -125 as they could have gone 10 points clear at the top of the league table.
  • I grabbed Man City (+175) to win the league at their highest odds, and will consider betting Liverpool if they happen to be plus-money again.

Relegation Odds

  • Huddersfield (-1200) are nearly a lock to be relegated as they’re eight points away from the safety zone.
  • Fulham are four points from safety, although oddsmakers feel a lot better about their chances to stay in the EPL.
  • Burnley (-130) and Cardiff (-125) have >50% chance of being relegated, but both are currently safe in the standings. I have a preseason wager on Burnley (+400), so I’ll be rooting for Cardiff the remainder of the season.

Season Trends

  • Road teams have been hot since the beginning of December and are now +7.58 units on the season.
  • Betting on every draw has resulted in a loss of 51.73 units.
  • Home teams have won 93 of 210 matches for -9.64 units overall.
  • In 2017-18, home teams earned +12 units while road teams were historically bad (-60 units).

 

Most/Least Profitable Clubs

Leicester City +18.12 units
Crystal Palace +11.84 units
Tottenham +8.6 units

Fulham -13.89 units
Huddersfield -11.15 units
Southampton -10.50 units

  • Leicester City and Crystal Palace have both picked up multiple victories as big underdogs to skew these results.
  • Tottenham are almost always favored so their units earned will naturally be smaller.
  • Fulham, Huddersfield and Southampton have combined to lose bettors more than 35 units on the season (8 wins in 63 matches).
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@ArsenalDMC

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