2017-18 Premier League Betting Recap
- Manchester City were available at +240 odds to win the title before the season
- Arsene Wenger says farewell to Arsenal after 22 seasons as manager
- All three promoted teams stay up for 2018-19 (Huddersfield, Brighton, Newcastle)
The 2017-18 Premier League season is in the books with Manchester City breaking numerous records as title winners. City finished with 100 points and won the league by a 19-point margin over Manchester United.
A major storyline toward the end of the season included the announcement that Arsene Wenger, manager of Arsenal, would step down after 22 years with the club. Unfortunately this was one of the worst seasons the Gunners have had in the Premier League and they were one of the least profitable teams on the moneyline.
Overall it was a great season for value plays, finishing with a 45-64 record for +33.04 units and a 30% ROI. Plays were mostly derived by analyzing the betting market as well as using historical data and Bet Labs betting systems.
Below I’ve recapped everything from the 2017-18 season, including title odds, relegation, season point totals, profitable clubs and more.
Manchester City were +240 to win the title last May and +180 right before the season started. They were dominant all season long, breaking a number of records including points (100), wins (32), consecutive wins (18), goals (106) and goal differential (79).
The three relegated teams and their preseason odds to be relegated were Stoke City (+700), West Brom (+600) and Swansea (+220).
The four teams with the lowest odds to be relegated before the season (Huddersfield, Burnley, Brighton, Watford) are all safe for 2018-19. It’s just the third time that all newly promoted teams stayed in the Premier League for the following season.
There were no draws on the final day, but they still ended up over +21 units on the season. Road teams struggled all year long and finished nearly -60 units. Home teams won 45.5% of matches, which was good for +11.93 units.
Season Point Totals
The five clubs with the lowest preseason point totals all went OVER. The two clubs with the highest preseason point totals also went OVER. Most of the clubs in the middle of the table fell UNDER.
Southampton (-18), West Brom (-11.5) and Stoke City (-11.5) were the biggest disappointments based on their preseason expectations. Somehow Southampton still avoided to be relegated.
Burnley (+18.5) and Manchester City (+18.5) were tied for biggest overachievers. Man City finished 46 points ahead of Burnley.
1. West Brom (+1700) at Manchester United on April 15, 2018
2. Huddersfield-Manchester City Draw (+1375) on May 6, 2018
3. Burnley (+1125) at Chelsea on August 12, 2017
4. Swansea (+1078) vs. Liverpool on January 22, 2018
5. Bournemouth (+911) at Chelsea on January 31, 2018
Liverpool’s Mo Salah was the top goalscorer, finishing with an incredible 32 goals, a new Premier League record for a 38-match season.
Only Andy Cole (34 in 1993/94) and Alan Shearer (34 in 1994/95) netted more Premier League goals in a single season (both 42-match campaigns). Salah scored 32 in just 36 games played.
The magnificent Egyptian was available at +5000 before the season to be top goalscorer. There were 29 other players with better odds before the season, and the favorites were Harry Kane (+350) and Romelu Lukaku (+400).
Most Profitable Clubs
1. Burnley +19.35 units
2. Man City +7
3. Man Utd +6.4
‘Draws’ were the best to blindly bet, earning +21.02 units on the season, followed by Burnley (+19.35 units). The results for Man City don’t look great because all data is based on risking one unit per play, but they won 32 of 38 matches.
Least Profitable Clubs
1. Southampton -22.96 units
2. Stoke City -16.6
3. Arsenal -9.3
Southampton crushed bettors’ bankrolls all year but they did draw 15 times in addition to just seven wins.
It pains me to see Arsenal as one of the least profitable clubs on the season, and much of that was because of their terrible road record in 2018. However, they did manage to win the last game of the year, 1-0, at Huddersfield, to send off Arsene Wenger nicely.
The 2017-18 season is over, but title odds for next season are already available here. Manchester City are -150 favorites to repeat, followed by Liverpool (+450) and Manchester United (+700).
You can also follow me on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) for all the latest soccer news and updates.
Cover photo features Liverpool’s Mo Salah