AFCON 2019 Final: Bettors Backing Algeria to Lift Trophy Against Senegal
www.cafonline.com. Pictured: Senegal’s Sadio Mane and Algeria’s Riyad Mahrez
- Algeria and Senegal will meet in the 2019 Africa Cup of Nations Final on Friday, 3 p.m. ET on beIN Sports.
- Sharp money has been all over Algeria since opening, dropping their odds to win from +215 to +175.
It’s been a fantastic summer of soccer around the globe including the Women’s World Cup, Copa America and Gold Cup. Friday’s Africa Cup of Nations Final will wrap up international play before clubs get their seasons underway.
Algeria will meet Senegal in a battle between African heavyweights. Odds are now identical on both sides to come away with a victory.
Algeria vs. Senegal Betting Odds
Friday, 3 p.m. ET at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo
- To Lift Trophy: Algeria -110, Senegal -110
- Algeria Moneyline: +175
- Senegal Moneyline: +175
- Draw: +205
- Spread: Pick ‘Em
- Over/Under: 2 (u-125)
Algeria and Senegal were both tested in the semifinal but scored late goals to reach the final.
74′: Tunisia awarded a penalty
75′: Tunisia miss the penalty
80′: Senegal awarded a penalty
81′: Senegal miss the penalty
Then 101 minutes in, this 👇🏾
— Tarik Endale (@the_etheropian) July 14, 2019
— Nick Harris (@sportingintel) July 14, 2019
We’ve seen plenty of early line movement toward Algeria for Friday’s AFCON Final. Originally opening in the +215 range, sharp money has bet the line down to +175 across the market.
Public bettors are mostly split, but smart wagerers have clearly come in on Algeria to win and lift the trophy.
Senegal opened as the +150 favorite but have since increased to +175 — the exact same odds as Algeria. The line on the draw has also been upped from +195 to +205.
These teams met in the group stage where Algeria came away with a 1-0 victory. Interestingly, Senegal were the clear +100 favorites in that match while Algeria were +325 underdogs, much different than Friday’s lines.
Unfortunately for Senegal, central defender Kalidou Koulibaly is suspended for the final, which is a huge loss. However, we do know that early line movement wasn’t caused by his absence since it was known prior to odds being posted. Algeria will still be without Youcef Atal, who fractured his collarbone during the quarterfinal win over Ivory Coast.
Both teams are still strong defensively, which is clearly evident by the low over/under of 2 goals. The juice is also steered toward the under (-125) and sharp bettors have continued to bet it. For what it’s worth, the odds of a scoreless draw in regulation are +500.
Each country has conceded just once during the entire tournament: Algeria gave up a goal to Nigeria in the semifinal while Senegal haven’t been scored on since the second group stage match, a 1-0 loss to Algeria.
There’s plenty of individual star power on both sides, headlined by Sadio Mane for Senegal and Riyad Mahrez for Algeria, but they’re also deep and talented all over the field. These teams don’t just play longballs and have their forwards run on — they’re creative and can pass their way through opponents.
Senegal are seeking their first Africa Cup of Nations title ever. They reached the final in 2002, but lost to Cameroon on penalty kicks.
Algeria haven’t played in the final since 1990 when they won their one and only title against Nigeria.
Prior to the tournament, Senegal were the second-favorites at +600 odds while Algeria were tied for the seventh-best odds at +1200. I do have a wager on Algeria at +650 following the group stage, and I won’t be hedging at all in the final with the game essentially a toss-up.