Gold Cup Final Odds: Is There Value on USA as Underdogs vs. Mexico?

Jul 07, 2019 3:00 PM EDT
Credit:

Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: USA’s Christian Pulisic

  • USA and Mexico will meet in the 2019 Gold Cup Final on Sunday (9 p.m. ET on FS1) at Solider Field, Chicago, Illinois.
  • Mexico are the clear favorites to lift the trophy at -165 odds, but USA may be undervalued for the upset.

USA vs. Mexico Betting Odds

Sunday, July 7 at 9 p.m. ET on FS1 and Univision

  • Odds to Win Gold Cup: Mexico -165, USA +145
  • Mexico Moneyline: +130
  • USA Moneyline: +230
  • Draw: +215
  • Spread: Mexico -0.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 (-145)

The two clear favorites throughout the tournament will meet in the Gold Cup final, but it wasn’t always a sure thing.

USA went undefeated in the group stage and then beat Panama, 1-0, and Jamaica, 3-1, in the knockout stage to reach the final.

Mexico also went unblemished during the group stage, but then narrowly edged Costa Rica in PKs and Haiti in extra time. They opened the tournament at +130 to lift the trophy and have been the favorites going into every match despite some struggles.

USA technically have the home-field advantage in the final, but Mexico will have plenty of fan support in the stadium.

The market consensus originally opened USA +230 to win in regulation and +145 to lift the trophy. Although odds haven’t budged much on average, you’ll want to make sure to shop for the best line since USA are involved.

Some sportsbooks list USA as low as +200 on the three-way moneyline while others are offering +240. If you’re going to bet the match, don’t settle for a shaded line.

Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie are the young studs leading the way for USA amid other attacking options including Jozy Altidore, Gyasi Zardes and Jordan Morris. Defensively they’ve have been pretty good, conceding just one goal during the tournament, and should feel very confident with Zack Steffen in goal.

Mexico have been the favorites throughout the tournament, but they have looked vulnerable, conceding four goals along the way including two against Martinique. They were fortunate to scrape past Haiti in extra time in the semifinal and Costa Rica on penalty kicks in the quarterfinal.

This isn’t their best possible squad and it’s hard to believe they’re now bigger favorites now than they were prior to the tournament starting.

USA were impressive to withstand multiple weather delays against Jamaica and a small wager on USA (+145) to lift the 2019 Gold Cup trophy is certainly warranted based on odds being offered.

The all-time head-to-head advantage goes to Mexico with 34 wins, 19 losses and 15 draws against USA. Mexico have a record seven Gold Cup titles, one ahead of USA. Their last meeting in a Gold Cup final was 2011, a 4-2 Mexico victory.

USA vs. Mexico Prop Bets

  • First Goalscorer: Mexico’s Raul Jimenez is the +450 favorite, followed by USA’s Jozy Altidore and Gyasi Zardes at +550 each
  • Both Teams to Score: Yes -110, No -110
  • Keep a Clean Sheet: Mexico +140, USA +240
  • Most Likely Scorelines: Mexico 1-0, Draw 1-1, Draw 0-0, Mexico 2-1, USA 1-0
  • Penalty Kick Awarded: Yes +275, No -375
  • Red Card Issued: Yes +260, No -350
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