Women’s World Cup Final Odds, Preview: USA Clear Favorites Over Netherlands

Jul 07, 2019 07:00 AM EDT
Credit:

Michael Chow-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: USA celebrating

  • USA are into their third consecutive Women's World Cup Final where they'll face Netherlands in Lyon, France on Sunday, July 7 at 11 a.m. ET on FOX and Telemundo.
  • The betting market currently lists USA at -500 to lift the trophy and -260 to win in regulation.

USA vs. Netherlands Betting Odds

Sunday, July 7 at 11 a.m. ET on FOX

  • To Win World Cup: USA -500, Netherlands +400
  • USA Moneyline: -260
  • Netherlands Moneyline: +725
  • Draw: +375
  • Spread: USA -1, -1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 (o-115)

After two incredible semifinal matches, USA and Netherlands will meet in the 2019 Women’s World Cup Final. USA are the clear -500 favorites to hoist the trophy and now up to -260 to win it in regulation.

It’s the dream matchup for me with futures on both USA (+350) and Netherlands (+1500) to hoist the trophy.

Netherlands went undefeated in the group stage against New Zealand, Cameroon and Canada, then advanced past Japan, Italy and Sweden in the knockout rounds. The match against Sweden was the first ever Women’s World Cup semifinal to go into extra time and was just the sixth draw all tournament.

They’ve been a second-half team throughout the Women’s World Cup, scoring 9 of their 11 goals after halftime.

USA should benefit from the Netherlands having to play 30 minutes of extra time in Wednesday’s semifinal, but the path wasn’t easy in the knockout rounds either. After dominating Thailand, Chile and Sweden in the group stage, they secured narrow 2-1 victories over Spain, France and England to reach the final.

After scoring ten goals in the second half against Thailand, they managed just three after halftime in the other five matches combined.

Many U.S. based sportsbooks and public offshores will take a loss if USA win the Women’s World Cup including FanDuel who already paid out $400k worth of futures before their quarterfinal match.

The action on this tournament has been significant globally and USA’s semifinal matchup with England was the most heavily bet women’s soccer game ever at U.K. betting exchange BetFair.

For the final, public bettors are back on the USA once again with more than 80% of the bets and money wagered. In USA’s previous three elimination matches, sharp money did come in on the other side (Spain, France, England) and we’ve seen that here as well. But, the buyback has been considerably quicker.

Netherlands have dropped below +700 on the moneyline twice, but both times there was immediate line movement toward USA.

Favorites have dominated this World Cup by winning 39 of 50 matches in regulation including 9-of-14 in the knockout rounds.

USA and Netherlands have met seven times in their history with USA winning six and Netherlands one. The last time they faced off was in 2016, a 3-1 victory by USA.

Betting Market Updates
As of 10 a.m. ET on Sunday

Per Darren Rovell, 81% of the bets are on the USA (-250) at DraftKings Sportsbook. Those bets account for 91% of the handle. The Netherlands (+700) has attracted 16% of the tickets but just 8% of the handle while the draw (+360) is, unsurprisingly, the least-popular option with 3% of the bets accounting for just 1% of the total handle.

At PointsBet, the U.S.A has garnered 81% of the bet count and 93% of the total money wagered. In terms of futures, over 50% of the tickets written were on the Americans.

In terms of props, FanDuel reports that the correct score of USA 2, Netherlands 1 has accounted for 21% of the total bet count. Alex Morgan is the most popular “First Scorer” bet with 31% of the bets on the 30-year-old striker.

Injury Updates (as of Sunday, 10 a.m. ET)

  • USA’s Rose Lavelle (midfielder) left Tuesday’s semifinal against England in the second half with a hamstring injury but is playing.
  • USA’s Megan Rapinoe (forward/midfielder) didn’t play at all in the semifinal with a sore hamstring but will start in the Final.
  • Netherlands’ Lieke Martens (forward/midfielder) has had a lingering foot injury and was subbed off at halftime of the semifinal. She is also starting.

Golden Boot (Top Goalscorer)

USA’s Alex Morgan has scored six goals this tournament, tied with England’s Ellen White, but the tiebreaker is most assists. Morgan has three while White has none.

Rapinoe did not play in the semifinal against England, but is right on the heels of Morgan with five goals and three assists.

Odds to Win 2019 Women’s World Cup

USA were the +350 co-favorites with hosts France before the tournament and are now the odds-on favorites at -500 to win their second straight Women’s World Cup.

Historical World Cup Finals

  • Only four nations have won the Women’s World Cup: USA, Germany, Japan, Norway
  • Germany are the only back-to-back winners, but USA have three titles
  • Three of the seven World Cup Finals needed extra time or penalties to determine a winner (2011, 2003, 1999)
  • Seven different countries have lost in the World Cup Final

USA Stats and Facts

  • Now hold the Women’s World Cup record for most consecutive wins (11) and matches unbeaten (16) in tournament history
  • 39 wins, 4 losses, 6 losses all-time in the Women’s World Cup, outscoring their opponents by a 136-38 margin
  • The 39 wins, 49 games-played and 136 goals scored are all Women’s World Cup records
  • Lost just once in the last 44 games in all competitions
  • Scored within the first 12 minutes in all six games this tournament
  • Set Women’s World Cup record for most goals (13) and biggest margin of victory (13) in a 13-0 win over Thailand in the opening Group F match. Also set records for most group goals (18) and group goal margin (+18) in tournament history
  • Undefeated when scoring first in the World Cup all-time (36 wins, 4 draws)
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