Premier League Props: Identifying Value Picks for Saturday’s EPL Action
Cléria De Souza (Flickr) – Wikimedia Commons
With eight games on Saturday’s Premier League slate, there’s plenty to get sink teeth into if you’re a fan of EPL wagering. Let’s take a look beyond the outright result markets and seek out the best value prop bets available. All odds quoted below are from William Hill.
Brighton vs. Chelsea
This one could get messy. Chelsea is heading into Saturday’s lunchtime kickoff against Brighton an angry team despite scraping through to the League Cup Final on penalties in midweek.
Both Alvaro Morata and Pedro were sent off in controversial circumstances during that wild Wednesday night game with Norwich, and they’re both suspended for Saturday’s clash at the Amex Stadium. But they have more than enough firepower from deep areas to still cause plenty of problems for the Seagulls.
Brighton has failed to score in three of their last four EPL games, and they’ve lost every time they’ve faced a top-six side this season. With just one win in their last 12 games, Brighton is desperate for a result, but against a fired-up Chelsea side that will likely lean heavily on their Belgian ace Eden Hazard, it’s unlikely the hosts will find one this weekend.
KEY PROP: EDEN HAZARD TO SCORE AT ANY TIME @ +115
Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace
Here’s a fun fact for you: Crystal Palace has actually out-scored Arsenal over their last two contests, scoring five to the Gunners’ three, but the pair swapped wins. Last April, Palace scored a remarkable 3-0 home win over Arsene Wenger’s men, but this season the London side took a back-and-forth game at Palace’s Selhurst Park home, winning 3-2.
This time around there’s much talk surrounding Arsenal, with Theo Walcott having left to join Everton and Alexis Sanchez close to sealing a switch to Manchester United. Palace’s dogged determination will present stubborn resistance but, playing at home, Arsenal will be expected to score goals.
The Gunners have scored at least two goals in 12 of their last 14 home EPL games, and they’ve also scored at least two goals in eight of their last 10 games against Palace in all competitions, so the prop pick here is pretty straightforward.
KEY PROP: ARSENAL OVER 2.5 GOALS @ +160
Burnley vs. Manchester United
Burnley is having a decent season, but they typically don’t fare too well against United. Looking back through their past meetings, the Clarets have really struggled not just to beat United, but to even score against them. They’ve netted just one goal in their last NINE home games against United in all competitions.
The hosts haven’t won in their last six games, while United’s away form is superb. They’ve won four and drawn one of their last five away games in the league, and they’ve scored at least two goals on each occasion.
KEY PROP: MANCHESTER UNITED OVER 1.5 GOALS @ -125
Everton vs. West Brom
Manager Sam Allardyce could prove to be the lucky charm that propels Everton to a result at home against West Brom. Statistician OPTA has revealed that Big Sam has an undefeated record at home against West Brom in the EPL.
The hosts will be boosted by the additional pace that new signing Theo Walcott will bring, while the visitors will arrive at Goodison Park buoyed by their first win in 21 EPL games last weekend.
Everton should have enough to get the win, but whichever way the result goes, expect it to be tight, with a single goal likely to decide it.
KEY PROP: UNDER 1.5 GOALS @ +150
Leicester vs. Watford
Leicester are nicely placed in eighth in the EPL, and they can potentially overtake Burnley (who entertains Manchester United) for seventh if they pick up a win at home against a Watford side that’s having a shocking run of form. The Hornets have won just one out of their last 10 EPL games, while Leicester is unbeaten in their last four in all competitions.
With Leicester playing on home turf at the King Power Stadium, the Foxes should have all the right conditions in place for a win, and they also have a player who seems to raise his game whenever he faces Watford.
Riyad Mahrez has a remarkable scoring record against the Hornets, having scored in his last four EPL games against Watford. Can he do it again this weekend? There’s a prop for that…
KEY PROP: RIYAD MAHREZ TO SCORE AT ANY TIME @ +200
Stoke vs. Huddersfield
Stoke is a ship sailing directly toward an iceberg, and they’ve just ditched their captain. Mark Hughes is gone, and in his place has come Paul Lambert, who has the unenviable task of steering the club clear of trouble. With the club picking up just two wins in their last 14 games in all competitions, it’s a tough task.
But this weekend Stoke has as good a chance to succeed as they could hope for. Only West Brom and Stoke themselves have a worse away record than Huddersfield, who the Potters face this weekend. Huddersfield hasn’t won in their last five games and, like Stoke, are struggling for goals.
The game is likely to be tight, with goals at a premium. And with both sides low in confidence but desperate to avoid defeat, a goalless draw looks excellent value at +750. However, a glance at the over/under market finds better value on effectively the same outcome, with under 0.5 goals available for +800. We’ll take that.
KEY PROP: UNDER 0.5 GOALS @ +800
West Ham vs. Bournemouth
West Ham has found its scoring touch. The Hammers have scored 12 goals in their last five Premier League games and are undefeated in their last six games in all competitions. On Saturday, they play host to Bournemouth, whose form is less then stellar. Bournemouth has taken just two wins from their last 14 games in all competitions but, remarkably, has scored at least two goals in each of their last four EPL games.
With both sides scoring freely, Saturday’s meeting could offer an opportunity to bet the over and make a profit if that trend continues.
KEY PROP: OVER 3.5 GOALS @ +240
Manchester City vs. Newcastle
Expect a backlash at the Etihad Stadium as Manchester City returns home looking to bounce back from their first league defeat of the season. City lost a 4-3 thriller at Liverpool last weekend, and they’re likely to come out guns blazing when they host Newcastle United on Saturday.
City defeated Newcastle away from home on Dec. 27, but now they’re back on home turf, where they’re averaging 3.5 goals per game. Add into the mix City’s superb defensive record at home (just eight goals conceded), and a look at the match handicap markets offers the best route to value on a City victory without taking your chances on specific goalscorers or exact scorelines.
KEY PROP: MANCHESTER CITY (-2 GOALS) @ -118
[Photo credit: Cléria De Souza (Flickr), Wikimedia Commons]