Benfica vs PSG Champions League Betting Preview: Fade Overvalued PSG

Benfica vs. PSG Odds

Two undefeated teams in Champions League Group H square off in Portugal, as Benfica host Paris Saint-Germain.

Benfica are off to a roaring start, sitting atop the Portuguese Primeira Liga table and with two wins in the Champions League. In fact, before their 0-0 draw on the road with Vitoria over the weekend, Benfica had won 13 straight matches in all competitions to open the season.

PSG are on cruise control in France, with eight wins and only one draw through their first nine domestic matches. PSG have the best front three in the world with Kylian Mbappe, Lionel Messi, and Neymar, but their underlying numbers in the Champions League are not living up to the talent level. Will that come back to bite them when they face their toughest test yet?

Benfica

Benfica to start the year in the Portuguese league have a +16.4 xGD in eight matches; they’ve allowed a total of 2.5 xG domestically in eight matches. They absolutely dismantled Juventus on the road after conceding on a set piece in the fourth minute, as they won the match 2-1 and won on xG 2.36 to 1.0. Touches in the penalty area were 38 to 16, and box entries were 30 to 8. 

image via infogol.net

Benfica are also red hot. They drew 0-0 over the weekend with Vitoria in the Portuguese League, but they had won 13 straight matches before that. They also used the Darwin Nunez money to go get some really good players like David Neres, who was a staple at Ajax for a number of years, and former PSG player Julian Draxler. 

Additionally, when everyone counted them out in the Champions League last season, Benfica put up a +1.3 xGD against Barcelona, Ajax, and Dynamo Kiev.

PSG

To get to PSG being a -130 favorite on the road in the Champions League against a team the level of Benfica, you have to ask yourself: Are they one of the three best teams in the world? My answer is absolutely not.

Against, Juventus, Kylian Mbappe scored two bangers — and then they basically sat off and allowed a terrible team to control the rest of the match. Against Haifa, they went behind because they were playing a high line, got cocky, and Haifa punished them. But they went on to win 3-1, so of course everything is fine.

PSG’s xThreat against Maccabi Haifa was 1.13 & against Juventus it was 1.03. Those are not elite numbers, especially when you are going up against a defense this good.

They had a sleepy 2-1 win over Nice this past weekend, where they only created 0.90 xG, and now, outside of maybe the Lyon match, this is their toughest test of the season going on the road to Portugal to play a really good Benfica side.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Despite having the best front three in the world, PSG have consistently shown in the Champions League that they are nowhere near being one of the top teams in the competition. Since the start of last year's Champions League, PSG only have a +0.42 xGD per 90 minutes. That is not elite.

So, I love Benfica at home to get a result against an overvalued PSG team.

The Pick: Benfica +0.5 (+117) (BetRivers)