Bundesliga Betting Picks and Predictions: Our Best Bets for Saturday’s Soccer Matches (May 23)

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May 23, 2020, 07:36 AM EDT
  • There are five Bundesliga matches on Saturday starting at 9:30 a.m. ET and wrapping up at 12:30 p.m. ET with Bayern Munich's showdown with Frankfurt.
  • Our experts detail their favorite bets for today's soccer matches, including Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund.

Saturday’s Bundesliga slate could have some gigantic ramifications on the title race.

Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund are both in action and Bayer Leverkusen will take on Borussia Monchengladbach in what is essentially an elimination game in the hunt for glory.

By the time the dust settles after Saturday’s matches we could have Bayern Munich as runaway winners or we could have a renewed chase for the Meisterschale.

Here are our favorite bets for Saturday’s five-game slate:

Brad Cunningham

Borussia Dortmund vs. Wolfsburg

9:30 a.m. ET, FS1

Coming off a stoppage-time winner at Augsburg last week, Wolfsburg heads home to take on second-place Borussia Dortmund. Dortmund comes into the match flying high after blitzing rival Schalke, 4-0, at Signal Iduna Park.

Wolfsburg is currently sitting in a Europa league spot (6th place) two points ahead of Freiburg. Dortmund is currently four points behind Bayern Munich and desperately needs every point possible to challenge the German giants for the title.

Dortmund has been an interesting case so far this season as they’ve vastly overachieved offensively this year, which sound crazy to say. Dortmund has scored 72 goals this season, but their expected goal total for the season is 51.03, meaning they’ve scored a lot of goals they shouldn’t have. Additionally, on the road this season Dortmund has only accumulated an expected goal differential of +2.86.

Wolfsburg is unbeaten in their last seven matches and in that span Die Wölfe has accumulated a +3.2 expected goal differential, which is good for a primarily defensive team.

Wolfsburg has been the best defensive team at home in the Bundesliga, only allowing 12.29 expected goals in 13 matches. Over their last six matches at the Volkswagen Arena, Die Wölfe have beaten Borussia Monchengladbach and earned a draw against RB Leipzig, so they are more than capable of getting a result from this match.

In the previous meeting, Dortmund beat Wolfsburg, 3-0, at Signal Iduna Park back in November. The game was a lot closer than score indicates. Looking at the expected goals report, the game should have played out closer to a draw. Two of Dortmund’s goals had an expected goal probability of 4%, so luck played a part in the 3-0 victory.

Based on my model, I have the expected goals at:

  • Wolfsburg: 1.40 xG
  • Dortmund: 1.30 xG

Dortmund is fairly big road favorite at -134 and currently, 97% of the moneyline dollars and 88% of the spread dollars are on Dortmund. Based on my model I think this line is wildly too high in Dortmund’s favor, so I am backing Wolfsburg to at least get a draw from this match.

The bet: Wolfsburg +0.5 (+110)

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Michael Leboff

Borussia Dortmund vs. Wolfsburg

9:30 a.m. ET, FS1

Borussia Dortmund are a team to keep an eye on for the rest of the Bundesliga season. I say that not just because they are four points behind pace-setters Bayern Munich, but also because their statistical profile suggests they should experience some regression, especially on the offensive side of the ball where they are outrunning their xG by 21 goals.

Dortmund’s overperformance continued last weekend in their 4-0 victory over rivals Schalke. BVB’s xG output for that match was 1.7, so while they deserved the win, the boxscore is telling a different story from the actual game.

So not only will Dortmund’s overperformance inflate their price, but recency bias should also provide some value if you try and beat Lucien Favre’s side on Saturday.

This also isn’t just a straight fade of Dortmund, either. Wolfsburg may not be in the same class as Bayern Munich, Dortmund or RB Leipzig, but Die Wolfe are capable of getting a result against any team thanks to their terrific defense. In fact, only RB Leipzig has a strong expected goals against this season than Die Wolfe.

Goals have come easy for Dortmund for much of this season but I expect them to find things a bit tougher against a sturdy defense that is looking to propel its team into Europa League with a sixth-place finish.

I think you can make the case for an Under — either on Dortmund’s team total or the full game — but I think the +335 on Wolfsburg’s moneyline is the best value on the board on Saturday morning.

The Bet: Wolfsburg +335

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Jeremy Pond

Borussia Dortmund vs. Wolfsburg

9:30 a.m. ET, FS1

This is an ultra-intriguing matchup between two Top 6 clubs in Bundesliga action, both of whom have plenty to play for late in the season.

Dortmund didn’t seem to display any rust last weekend in its 4-0 trashing of Schalke following the league’s two-month hiatus. The club, which is second in the Bundesliga with 51.03 expected goals, has now won five consecutive matches and sits just four points behind powerhouse Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga standings.

Wolfsburg didn’t have it as easy in its return, needing a stoppage-time goal against Augsburg to scratch out a 2-1 win.

History in the series with Dortmund has not been kind to Wolfsburg, whose 40.39 expected goals is good enough for sixth in league play. It has lacked any sort of firepower during its recent games against Dortmund. How bad has it been? Wolfsburg has been shut out in its last six games against its counterpart, leading to an 0-5-1 record and being outscored 12-0 in the process.

I probably would have given Wolfsburg a better shot in this fixture to possibly squeak out a draw had they had their fans behind them in the stands due to the importance of this match. However, the stands will be empty and takes away any sort of home-field edge.

That said, I fully expect striker Erling Braut Haaland and Dortmund to control things from the opening whistle and pick up the road victory.

I like Dortmund on the moneyline at -150 or better, and the total going over the number. I am also playing Dortmund’s Jadon Sancho to score any time in the match.

The Bets: Borussia Dortmund (-143); Over 2.5 Goals (-163); Jadon Sancho To Score Anytime (+137)

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Anthony Dabbundo

SC Paderborn vs. Hoffenheim

9:30 a.m. ET

Situated at the bottom of the Bundesliga table, Paderborn is desperate for points. Yet last week, in a relegation six-pointer against Dusseldorf, Paderborn generated just 0.7 xG in a goalless draw. Winless in seven matches, Paderborn has created 1.0 xG or more just twice, and has had plenty of issues defensively in keeping teams out of their penalty area.

Hoffenheim is in brutal form of late too, having won none of its last six Bundesliga matches, losing four. But unlike Paderborn, who have been bad both in attack and defense, Hoffenheim’s poor form is more the result of poor finishing. They have scored just four goals in those six matches, despite generating 9.4 xG.

I’ll continue the trend of fading one of the Bundesliga’s worst teams at home without fan support. It offers value on betting the much better team, Hoffenheim, to return to winning and change its current run of poor finishing of chances. In last week’s 3-0 loss to Hertha Berlin, Hoffenheim won the xG battle 2.6-1.5, and somehow missed five chances of 0.3 xG or better. While that could be random variance or lack of sharpness from a two-month layoff, I’m betting on some positive regression. I’ll take the much better team at plus-money.

The bet: Hoffenheim +115

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