Champions League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Inter Milan vs. Real Madrid (Wednesday, Nov. 25)
Mattia Ozbot/Soccrates/Getty Images. Pictured: Lautaro Martinez (left) and Romelu Lukaku (right).
- Inter Milan and Real Madrid are fighting for their Champions League lives on Wednesday afternoon.
- Matt Trebby sizes up the betting opportunities in today's matchup, including his favorite pick.
Inter Milan vs. Real Madrid Odds
|Inter Milan Odds||+110 [BET NOW]|
|Real Madrid Odds||+235 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+265 [BET NOW]|
|Time||3 p.m. ET|
|TV||CBS All Access | fuboTV|
In one of the two potential “groups of death” in this season’s Champions League, the two biggest clubs in it are in need of a result.
Inter Milan and Real Madrid enter their matchup at the San Siro on Wednesday sitting third and fourth, respectively, in the group behind Borussia Monchengladbach and Shakhtar Donetsk. Real are level on points with Shakhtar at four, one behind the German side. Inter, meanwhile, have gotten just two from the first three group games.
Just three weeks ago, these teams engaged in a five-goal thriller. Given Inter’s defensive run of form and a key injury to the heart of Madrid’s defense, a repeat performance is definitely possible.
Let’s find the value.
Simply put, this is a must-win match for Inter Milan.
The Nerazzuri have just two points from their first three Group B matches thanks to draws against Borussia Monchengladbach and Shakhtar Donetsk. In those draws, Inter were horribly wasteful, according to expected goal data. The xG total was 3.51-1.45 in the 2-2 draw against Monchengladbach, and they had a 1.96-0.08 advantage in Ukraine.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Domestically, Inter are tied atop the goalscoring charts in Serie A with Sassuolo, scoring 20 goals through eight games. Manager Antonio Conte’s side put four past Torino at the weekend, so they’ll be hoping that kind of form in front of goal is present against Real Madrid.
Still, though, Inter allowed two to the German side and three against Real. The defense is an issue. Inter has also allowed 13 goals in the league this season. They might get a boost on that front, though, in the form of a significant absentee in the Madrid attack.
Real Madrid has had a fairly underwhelming start to the 2020-21 season. Los Blancos are 5-2-2 in La Liga, having taken just one point from their last two league games. One of those, it should be noted, was a 4-1 loss to Valencia that saw Madrid give up three penalties.
In the Champions League, Madrid’s three matches have seen five, four and five goals scored. They’re definitely in the entertainment industry.
Their last game in Europe, against Inter in Madrid, was a crucial victory. Real had taken just one point from their first two games, and they were up, 2-0, against Inter before Conte’s side leveled the game before a late Rodrygo goal secured all three points.
Unfortunately for manager Zinedine Zidane, he will be without his two most reliable players for the trip to Milan. Neither center back Sergio Ramos or striker Karim Benzema were among the 21-man squad that traveled.
As important as Ramos is to Madrid, Benzema’s absence is a much bigger concern. The Frenchman has been in great form this season, and deputy striker Luka Jovic is also absent from the traveling party.
Either the unheralded Mariano Diaz will get the start up front, or Zidane will get creative with his many attacking options. (Diaz did start over the weekend against Villarreal.)
Inter Milan-Real Madrid Picks
Inter have created chances in every game they’ve played this season. That’s not an issue. The defense is, and they’ve been given a massive gift with Benzema’s absence. He’s not the flashiest player in the world but is the engine of Madrid’s attack. He will be missed.
I expect Conte to have his side ready to roll for this match, especially at the San Siro. The Inter moneyline at +110 is good value, as is over their team total at 1.5, which is -129. You can parlay those and get to +138 on DraftKings.
Pick: Inter Milan parlay: Inter ML +110 and team total over 1.5 goals -129.