Champions League Betting Breakdown for Wednesday’s Group Matches
Getty Images. Pictured:
Barcelona’s Argentinian forward Lionel Messi celebrates after scoring during the UEFA Champions’ League group B football match FC Barcelona against PSV Eindhoven at the Camp Nou stadium
- Champions League Wednesday matches are highlighted by Barcelona-Tottenham (3 p.m. ET) and Liverpool-Napoli (3 p.m. ET).
- There are eight more games on the board and plenty of value as we've picked apart the betting market for every one.
There were a couple of big shockers during Tuesday’s Champions League action. The two biggest results were CSKA Moscow’s win over Real Madrid and Bayern Munich’s draw at home with Ajax with Manchester United’s draw against Valencia a close third.
Some of the top teams in the tournament have struggled in the group stage so far, and we’ve got some more crucial matches on Wednesday afternoon including Barcelona-Tottenham and Liverpool-Napoli.
There’s plenty of value on the board and I’ve picked out two value plays while breaking down the betting market for every match.
Season Record: 2-0-1 (+2.05 units)
>> All odds via Pinnacle as of Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET. All betting percentages are the offshore market average. Download The Action Network App to get real-time Champions League odds and track your bets.
Schalke at Lokomotiv Moscow (12:55 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Schalke (+122), Lokomotiv (+270), Draw (+225)
Total: 2 (o-117)
Deemed one of the weakest in the history of the competition, Group D is anyone’s for the taking. After seeing Real Madrid fail to score in Russia on Tuesday, it may be difficult to back Schalke to get a result, despite the fact that they’re the favorites.
Well, that hasn’t been the case whatsoever for bettors as odds have dropped to +122 from +160. The majority of the public is on the road side, though there’s clearly been some sharp money taking Schalke, too.
Now that the lines have increased, I like the value on the draw (+225), especially with such a low over/under.
Red Star Belgrade at PSG (12:55 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: PSG (-1600), Red Star (+4000), Draw (+1300)
Total: 4 (u-120)
PSG are massive -1600 favorites and don’t even offer much value in parlays, but it’s hard not to just throw them in. They’ve got more than a 94% chance of victory at home.
The more intriguing bets in this match are the goal line (PSG -3) and the over/under (4). Bettors are pounding both PSG and the Over, and the juice has been adjusted on both accordingly.
Barcelona at Tottenham (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Barcelona (-107), Tottenham (+292), Draw (+293)
Total: 3 (o-102)
Despite numerous injuries for Tottenham and lopsided public betting on Barcelona, this line hasn’t budged much over the last week.
Odds do differ pretty greatly around the market though, with Barcelona ranging from +103 to -120. While those margins may not appear to be that significant, they equate to about a 5% chance in win probability. Getting the best of the line in these situations is important for your bankroll.
Barcelona have failed to earn a win in three straight La Liga matches, and that can’t be overlooked here. While I always support Messi and company, they may be a bet to avoid.
Inter Milan at PSV (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Inter (+140), PSV (+197), Draw (+258)
Total: 2.5 (o-135)
PSV have received most of the support so far, which is a tad surprising considering Inter Milan came back to beat Tottenham, 2-1, in the opening group match. Odds have also shifted toward the home side, moving from +213 to +197, and they’ve been dominant in the Eredivisie.
However, Inter Milan are still the favorites at +140 and have won three straight Serie A matches, so they’re also in a good form. This should be a solid, competitive battle that should end up 2-1 either way.
Monaco at Dortmund (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Dortmund (-280), Monaco (+770), Draw (+450)
Total: 3 (o-120)
Public bettors are taking a shot on big underdogs Monaco, but all the line movement has been toward Dortmund. I don’t expect much trouble for the home side and would definitely put them in a moneyline parlay.
Club Brugge at Atletico Madrid (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Atletico (-344), Brugge (+1160), Draw (+457)
Total: 2.5 (o-130)
Atletico Madrid are fully expected to win at home and receiving nearly 90% of the bets. They’re notoriously stingy defensively and can usually be trusted to shutout inferior teams. Most parlays on Wednesday will include them, but I’m going to lay off.
Galatasaray at FC Porto (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Porto (-207), Galatasaray (+670), Draw (+355)
Total: 2.5 (o-125)
Galatasaray’s 3-0 win in the opening group match was a bit generous as they could have easily conceded multiple goals. FC Porto were unfortunate to only draw, 1-1, at Schalke, and they’ll be confident in getting all three points back at home.
Public bettors are taking the big road underdog and factoring for nearly 40% of the moneyline bets.
I picked FC Porto to win the group prior to the tournament, and this is a match they need to take all three points in. I’ll gladly fade the trendy underdog and include Porto in a moneyline parlay with Dortmund.
Liverpool at Napoli (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Liverpool (+119), Napoli (+240), Draw (+260)
Total: 3 (u-120)
Napoli-Liverpool has seen the most betting action of any game so far, and public bettors are all over Liverpool to win on the road. At plus-money odds and a high total, it’s easy to see why that’s enticing.
Last weekend, Liverpool dropped points in the EPL for the first time all season, but still managed to draw, 1-1, at Chelsea. They’re tied atop the league despite Mo Salah not fully 100%, which makes it more impressive.
With more than 80% of the bets, I’m avoiding Liverpool, and would consider Napoli on the goal line as a contrarian angle. If you do decide to bet Liverpool, don’t settle for a bad number, as their odds can be found from -105 to +119 around the market.
Most Lopsided Betting Percentages
Barcelona and Liverpool are getting the most love, both with similar odds on the road. Galatasaray are receiving a lot of public support considering their nearly 7-1 to win.
Biggest Line Moves
Schalke have seen the most significant line movement as underdogs, but I’m avoiding them in Russia. Despite the line already moving on Dortmund, I still think there’s value including them in a parlay.
- Schalke-Lokomotiv Draw (+225)
- Porto/Dortmund Parlay (+102)