Champions League Betting: Finding Value in Tuesday’s Group Matches

Champions League Betting: Finding Value in Tuesday’s Group Matches article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: A sad Cristiano Ronaldo after being red-carded in the opening Champions League match

  • The second round of Champions League group stage matches will begin on Tuesday with big favorites including Juventus, Bayern Munich and Roma.
  • We've broken down the betting market to find value using the most lopsided tickets, line movement and sharp action.

While there are no marquee matches on the board in the Champions League Tuesday, every game is critical toward the final group standings. Big clubs such as Manchester City and Roma don’t want to lose two in a row and put themselves in a hole.

Here’s a look at the betting market for all eight matches set for Tuesday afternoon.


>> All odds via Pinnacle as of Monday at 2 p.m. ET. All betting percentages are the offshore market average. Download The Action Network App to get real-time Champions League odds and track your bets.


Young Boys at Juventus (12:55 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Juventus (-655), Young Boys (+2010), Draw (+745)
Total: 3 (o-125)

There’s been slight movement toward Juventus even as heavy favorites, and they will likely be included in a lot of moneyline parlays. More than 80% of bettors also think it’ll be a blowout, so they’re taking the goal line instead (-2 goals at +105).

Oddsmakers have also shifted the juice on over 3 goals (-110 to -125). With Juventus being a stingy defensive side, they’ll probably have to cover that on their own.

Don’t forget that Juve will be without new star Cristiano Ronaldo, who is suspended for the match after receiving a red card.

Manchester City at Hoffenheim (12:55 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Man City (-275), Hoffenheim (+710), Draw (+475)
Total: 3 (o-125)

Odds have shifted toward big favorites Manchester City, and they’ll need to secure all three points after a shocking loss to Lyon in the first group match. With some public support on Hoffenheim, I like Man City as a contrarian favorite to include in a parlay with a team such as Dortmund or Porto, who are both playing on Wednesday.

Some sportsbooks are offering a total of 3.5 goals with juice on the under (-135), while others list it at 3 goals with juice on the over (-125).

Manchester City’s offensive prowess is known, and every Hoffenheim match this season has featured both teams scoring, so I would definitely consider taking over 3 goals in this one.

Valencia at Manchester United (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Man Utd (-141), Valencia (+464), Draw (+276)
Total: 2.5 (o-112)

Despite things not going well for Man United in the EPL, they’re off to a solid start in the Champions League, beating Young Boys, 3-0, in the opener.

 

Public support is waning, though, with fewer than 50% of tickets on the Red Devils to get the home victory on Tuesday. They’re not in the best form, and the moneyline is all the way down to -141 after opening at -200.

Shakhtar Donetsk at Lyon (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Lyon (-118), Shakhtar (+344), Draw (+283)
Total: 3 (u-135)

Lyon’s stunner at Manchester City has turned this group upside down, and the home side has a chance to stay top of the table with a win or draw. However, I like what Shakhtar Donetsk has to offer and think we may see another upset in Group F.

Lyon (-118) are the most popular bet among the public (92% of tickets), but the line has barely budged. In fact, the market moved to -110 before slowly creeping back up to the original odds.

This is a great contrarian opportunity to bet on Shakhtar Donetsk to win/draw at plus odds.

 

Ajax at Bayern Munich (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Bayern (-515), Ajax (+1400), Draw (+666)
Total: 3 (o-125)

Even though nine out of 10 tickets have come in on Bayern Munich to win, their moneyline has actually dropped from the opener (-530 to -495). Clearly some respected money came in early on Ajax, although we could easily see this line jump again over the next 24 hours.

Bayern have slipped up a couple times as big favorites in the Bundesliga and are a bit overpriced here. If you can find Ajax +2.5 goals, I would certainly take it but will also settle for Ajax +2 at even money.

Viktoria Plzen at Roma (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Roma (-300), Plzen (+890), Draw (+450)
Total: 3 (o-118)

Roma have received some heavy betting support, and odds have increased accordingly. They’ll be desperate to get all three points after dropping the first group match to Real Madrid, 3-0. I don’t see any real value in this one.

Real Madrid at CSKA Moscow (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Real Madrid (-170), CSKA (+527), Draw (+315)
Total: 3 (o-125)

The betting action in this match has probably been the most surprising on the entire board: CSKA Moscow are the ones receiving some love from bettors after opening +700 to win and +440 to draw.

Real Madrid have failed to win their last two La Liga matches, albeit against difficult opponents, so they might not be instilling confidence in public bettors. Now that odds are down to -170, they could be providing some contrarian value, but I personally like CSKA Moscow to steal a point. These trips to Russia are never easy.

Benfica at AEK Athens (3 p.m. ET)
Moneylines: Benfica (+117), AEK (+293), Draw (+223)
Total: 2 (o-135)

Benfica and AEK Athens both lost the opening group matches and can’t afford to slip further behind in Group E.

The over/under in this match is the lowest of the day at 2 goals (-135), and odds suggest it will be the most competitive as well. A bit of sharp money came in on Benfica early, and I could see the line continue to move in their favor.


Most Lopsided Betting percentages

Bayern Munich and Lyon are the most lopsided bets of the day, but Hoffenheim have seen tons of support considering their odds. The market is not phased by the public action and the line has shifted the other way toward Man City.


Biggest Line Moves

Odds keep moving away from Manchester United, which isn’t a big surprise considering the turmoil surrounding the club. Mourinho looks like he’ll be gone soon unless there’s a quick turnaround in all competitions, and Valencia will be another tough test.


Value Bets

Man City-Hoffenheim Over 3 (-125)
Shaktar Donetsk +0.5 (+105) at Lyon
Ajax +2 (+100) at Bayern Munich