Champions League Round of 16 Betting Previews: Tottenham-Dortmund and Ajax-Real Madrid

We’ve got two more great Champions League battles on Wednesday so let’s dive right into the betting market to see how things are shaping up.

2018-19 Champions League Record: 11-13-1 (-0.43 units)

Dortmund at Tottenham (Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET on TNT)
Moneylines: Tottenham +110, Dortmund +260, Draw +250
Total: 2.5 (o-130)

If you think you’ve seen this matchup before, that’s because you have. These teams have now met in European competition in three of the last four years, with each club winning two games apiece.

Unfortunately, key injuries are at the forefront for this year’s tilt as Tottenham’s Harry Kane and Dele Alli will miss out, as will Dortmund striker Marco Reus. Dortmund have also been dealing with a flu bug, which isn’t ideal when having to travel.

Spurs haven’t been playing particularly well the last few weeks, but they’ve still managed to reel off three straight EPL victories after losing in both the FA Cup and EFL Cup.

That seems to be the story of their season since they were the only Champions League group stage team to qualify despite a negative goal differential.

For Wednesday’s first leg encounter, we’ve seen drastic line movement toward both clubs since opening. Tottenham’s odds have swung in the +105 to +145 range, while Dortmund’s moneyline has been anywhere from +195 to +265.

Currently, Spurs are listed at +115 to win and are receiving more than 70% of bets. The draw hasn’t caught the eye of public bettors, but a bit of sharp money has hit it a couple times in the +275/+280 range. Most books around the market now list the draw at +260.

Odds to advance have certainly shifted in Dortmund’s favor, though, moving from -110 to -135 since opening in December. Tottenham’s chances have drifted from -110 to +115, now right on par with their odds in the first leg.

I’ve been burned on Spurs draws a few times in the EPL this season (they’ve yet to draw once through 26 matches), but that’s where I believe the value lies against Dortmund.

Real Madrid at Ajax (Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET on B/R Live)
Moneylines: Real Madrid -110, Ajax +310, Draw +285
Total: 3 (o-125)

Real Madrid seem to be hitting their stride at the right time, winning five straight La Liga matches to narrow the gap at the top table to six points behind Barcelona.

Perhaps the turn of the new year helped because their season was much different in the fall. Six different underdogs of +500 or higher defeated Real Madrid across all competitions, but may have put those all behind.

Ajax seem to be going the other way and have won just once in their previous four games in the Netherlands Eredivisie.

The good news is they were one of five unbeaten teams in the Champions League group stage, scoring more than 90% of their goals in the second half of matches. They’ve also been dominant at home in European matches, losing just once in their last 21 outings.

With Real Madrid in good form and Ajax in poor form, it should come as no surprise that public bettors have been heavy on Real Madrid. More than 70% of moneyline tickets is on Los Blancos, and that should remain consistent up until kickoff. After opening at plus-money odds, Real Madrid are now listed in the -110/-115 range, and that could easily rise over the next 24 hours.

I rode Ajax throughout the group stage and would love to go contrarian in this spot, but I can’t commit to betting them before the match. With a high total of 3 goals, I’d be more inclined to making a live, in-game bet after seeing how things pan out.

Value Plays

• Dortmund-Tottenham Draw (+265)