Aston Villa (12-3-3) and Arsenal (13-2-3) will face off today at 3:15 p.m. EST at Emirates Stadium in London, England.
The over/under is set at 2.5 goals in this match. Arsenal is favored at a price of 66 cents, while Aston Villa is priced at 14 cents to win on Fanatics Markets.
Let's get into my Aston Villa vs. Arsenal prediction.
Aston Villa vs. Arsenal Prediction
Pick: Arsenal to Win
My Aston Villa vs. Arsenal best bet is on the Gunners' victory in this match.
Aston Villa vs. Arsenal Odds
Aston Villa vs. Arsenal Picks, Parlay
Pick: Arsenal to Win
Arsenal are looking to avenge their 2-1 defeat at Villa Park earlier this month when they take on Aston Villa on Tuesday night.
The Gunners are top of the Premier League, but with just two points between them and Manchester City, there is no room for error. It’s been more than 20 years since Arsenal last won the title, so Pep Guardiola’s side has the mental edge should the race go down to the wire.
Mikel Arteta’s side beat Brighton 2-1 in their last game. They created far more chances than the Seagulls, finishing the game with 2.23 more xG (expected goals) than the visitors, but the Arsenal fans had to endure a nervy finish.
Aston Villa come into this game having won their last 11 matches across all competitions. During that run, they have beaten Chelsea, Manchester United, and, of course, Arsenal. Another win over the Gunners would highlight Unai Emery’s side’s title credentials.
Despite Villa’s winning run and recent success against Arsenal, Arteta’s team are the clear favourites. They will need to live up to that tag with Manchester City waiting to pounce.
Aston Villa vs. Arsenal Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Aston Villa | Draw | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 12.2% | 21.2% | 66.6% |
Projected Total Goals
| Aston Villa | Total Goals | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 0.61 | 2.41 | 1.80 |
Aston Villa vs. Arsenal Betting Analysis
Just weeks ago, Aston Villa stunned Arsenal with a 2-1 victory, challenging expectations and confirming their exceptional form. Despite this, Arsenal enters the upcoming match as the overwhelming favourite, a position that seems questionable given recent events.
At the moment, the Gunners have received a 67.6% implied probability of winning, according to the bookmaker’s odds. With the Villans on an 11-game winning streak, siding with the favourites, even if they are playing at home, is a potential risk.
Meanwhile, despite Arsenal boasting one of the best defences in Europe, the odds heavily favour the hosts, offering value in backing goals at both ends. ‘Both teams to score – Yes’ is priced just around even, a value pick considering how in-form both teams are offensively.
The goal line of 2.5 offers identical odds for both over and under bets. Arsenal have an excellent defensive record, and Villa’s backline is strong, but the attacking talent of both teams could mean we see a goal-friendly game.
Viktor Gyokeres is the most likely player to score, according to the bookmakers. However, with just one goal in his last seven appearances, the value could be elsewhere.
Ollie Watkins is the shortest-priced Aston Villa player in the anytime goalscorer market. The striker netted a brace against Chelsea, but he has scored in just three of his 18 Premier League games this season.
