European Soccer Best Bets, Projected Odds & Forecast for Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1, More (May 6-9)

Even though La Liga, Bundesliga, and Ligue 1 titles have been wrapped up, the race for the final Champions League and Europa League sports is about as close as it gets.

Let's take a look at the standings in the four leagues across the continent.

Bundesliga Table

Serie A Table

La Liga Table 

Ligue 1 Table

*(Graphics via fbref.com)

There are massive matches all around Europe on the latest cards with a ton at stake, so this is going to be an unbelievable weekend of soccer.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here. You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Bundesliga Projections

Best Bets

Hertha Berlin vs. Mainz

This line has motivation built, with Hertha Berlin trying to secure safety for next season and Mainz comfortably in the middle of the table. However, given the underlying performances, these are two drastically different sides.

Overall for the season, Hertha Berlin has a -21.7 xGDiff, while Mainz is at +5.3 in the same advanced metric, per fbref.com.

This is such a good matchup for Mainz for a number of reasons. First, the club is a fantastic pressing team ranking inside the top four in PPDA, high turnovers and pressure success rate. In contrast, Hertha Berlin is the worst team in the Bundesliga at playing through pressure.

Secondly, Mainz is the No. 1 team in the German top flight at preventing big scoring chances. Hertha Berlin has created the third fewest in the category. Thirdly, Mainz has the third best set-piece defense, as it has allowed only six goals and 9.4 xGA off them. Hertha Berlin is very reliant on set pieces, as they’ve scored 11 of their 35 goals on them, per understat.com.

The last time these sides met, Mainz completely dominated Hertha Berlin in a 4-0 win. The victors held a 2.6-0.5 edge in xG and had 33 shot-creating actions to just six for Hertha Berlin, per fbref.com.

I have Mainz projected as -101 road favorite in Berlin, so I love the outfit on the Draw No Bet wager at +100 odds and will make it my top selection.

Pick: Mainz — Draw No Bet (+100)

Serie A Projections

Best Bets

Torino vs. Napoli

This is a matchup of two of the best three defenses in Italian top flight, with both teams really having nothing to play for in this meeting. Napoli is out of the title race and Torino is comfortably in the middle of the table. 

Both sides are conceding less than 0.85 NPxG per match and yielding less than 0.65 big scoring chances per game, while both sides are outside the top seven in big scoring chances created.

There has to be some regression coming for Napoli matches, which have been chaotic over the past few months. In its last seven games, there have been 29 goals scored off 17.9xG, which is insane. On the other hand, the club's contest have only averaged 2.34 xG overall. So, if there ever was a match for some regression, this is the one for it.

Both teams are also top five at preventing progressive passes and also top five at defending set pieces. So, it’s going to be very difficult for either of these offenses to create high-quality chances.

I have the total projected at 1.81, so I love the value on the total staying under 2.5 goals at +108 odds in this match.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+108)

La Liga Projections

Best Bets

Espanyol vs. Osasuna

This match means absolutely nothing to either side. Both are comfortably in the middle of the table, with no threat of relegation. That said, I'm expecting this contest to be a snoozer between two of the worst La Liga offenses.

Espanyol has been dreadful offensively, despite having one of the leading goal scorers in La Liga in Raul de Tomas, who has bagged 15 goals on the campaign. Espanyol is 13th in xG per match; 15th in big scoring chances; and, 18th in crosses completed into the penalty area.

Osasuna has been bad as of late, but is a top 10 defensive team in the Spanish top flight in terms of xGA this season.

*(Graphic via infogol.net)

Osasuna is a Both Teams To Score (No) wagering haven, because in only nine of its 34 matches have both teams created at least one xG in the process. The same could be said about Espanyol. In 10 of its 34 contests, both teams created at least one xG, per fbref.com.

The last time these teams met, it was a boring 0-0 draw with only a total of 1.45 xG created. So, I am expecting something similar, especially since neither of side has anything to play for in this affair. 

I have the Both Teams To Score (No) wager projected at -147, so I like the value we can get on the current line of -106 odds.

Pick: Both Teams To Score — No (-106)

Ligue 1 Projections

Best Bets

Lille vs. Monaco

These are two of the top three defenses in France based on xGA and the top teams in terms of big scoring chances conceded. The problem is Lille has nothing to play for here, but that could be a benefit since Renato Sanches and Burak Yılmaz are going to miss this match due suspension. 

Before a 3-0 loss against Troyes last weekend where two players received red cards and the club gave up three penalties, Lille had been on an incredible defensive streak. The defending league champion had gone nine consecutive games allowing less than one xG in the process.

Lille has gone 13 consecutive matches without allowing a big scoring chance, which is almost unfathomable. Les Dogues have yielded just 16 big scoring chances in 35 matches, which is the best mark in Europe’s top five leagues.

There is no denying that Monaco is on fire offensively, winning its last seven matches and scoring 17 goals in the process. However, if there was a team to stop the club it would be Lille, especially having to play more defensive without two of its best attacking players.

Defensively, Monaco is the top team in France, allowing only 0.87 NPxG per match. It's also the No. 1 pressing team in Ligue 1 by PPDA and have forced the third-most high turnovers. However, Monaco doesn't do anything with them, sitting 13th in shots off high turnovers, per Opta.

Lille is very average at playing through pressure, so it wouldn’t shock me to see Monaco holding at least 60% possession. The question is whether or not the side is going to be able to do anything with it.

I only have 2.19 goals projected for this game, so I like the value on the total staying under 2.5 goals at +106 odds and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+106)