European Soccer Best Bets, Projected Odds & Forecast for Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga, More (Dec. 10-13)

There wasn't much drama outside of England this past weekend, with Bayern winning Der Klassiker against Borussia Dortmund. However, we did have two pretty big upsets in La Liga action, with Mallorca upsetting Atlético Madrid and Real Betis defeating Barcelona.

This weekend, there's a full slate of Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga and Ligue 1 matches, headlined by the latest Madrid derby between Real and Atléti, along with a huge clash in France with Paris Saint-Germain hosting Monaco.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Bundesliga Projections

Best Bets

Bochum vs. Dortmund

Erling Haaland is back, which means so is betting Dortmund overs on game totals. With Haaland in the lineup, the Black and Yellows are averaging 2.1 expected goals per match in the Bundesliga. Without him, they’re only averaging 1.7 xG per game.

That said, Dortmund should be able to score at will on Bochum, who has been one of the worst defenses in the German top flight.

Bochum is allowing 2.00 xG per contest and when they have to face some of the elite offenses in Germany, it’s not pretty. They allowed 4.6 xG to Bayern Munich; 2.5 xG to RB Leipzig; 2.0 xG to Freiburg; and, 1.8 xG to Borussia Mönchengladbach. I mean, they just allowed 2.9 xG to Augsburg, who is one of the Bundesliga's worst offensive teams.

Offensively, Bochum hasn’t been that bad as we would expect from a newly promoted team, especially since they've created 8.7 xG in their last six matches. In those six games, they also created more than one xG against Eintracht Frankfurt, Hoffenheim and Gladbach.

So, going up against a Dortmund defense that's going to be minus one of it’s best defenders in Manuel Akanji and has allowed the fifth-most big scoring chances, I do think there is a good chance Bochum can get on the board.

I have 3.64 goals projected for this match, so I love the total clearing three goals at -120 odds via DraftKings and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Total Over 3 Goals (-120)

Hertha Berlin vs. Arminia Bielefeld

Hertha Berlin has been playing much better than they were in the beginning of the season. In their last seven matches, they only have around a -2.0 xGDiff, which is pretty good considering they had a -6.8 xGDiff through their first seven matches.

Hertha Berlin has also been much better at home, putting up a +2.15 NPxGDiff, mainly due to their defense, which is in the top half of the Bundesliga in shots allowed per 90 minutes and big scoring chances conceded.

Most of their struggles have come versus the big boys in Germany, as Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig completely ran them off the pitch. However, they've actually had some success against teams near them in the table, because they're unbeaten against the bottom seven teams in the league.

On the other side, Arminia Bielefeld is destined for relegation. They have provided nothing going forward, averaging 0.85 NPxG per match and have created only seven big scoring chances, both of which is last in the Bundesliga. On the flip side, they're bottom five defensively in NPxG conceded, shots allowed per 90 minutes, big scoring chances yielded and box entries allowed.

Since I have Hertha Berlin projected at -133, I love them at +105 odds to grab all three points on home soil.

Pick: Hertha Berlin ML (+105)

Serie A Projections

Best Bets

Udinese vs. AC Milan

Udinese was extremely underrated last season and it’s the same case this campaign. Through 16 matches, they have a -6 actual goal differential, but their xGDff is only around -1 thus far. So, some regression will be coming at some point and a match against league-leader AC Milan is a good spot to do it. Udinese does have some talent going forward, as they’re 5th in NPxG.

AC Milan has been much worse on the road than they’ve been at home this season. Milan has a +1.65 NPxGD at home versus +8.4 at home. AC Milan is also dealing with a lot of injuries right now, as  Simon Kjaer, Pietro Pellegri, Olivier Giroud, Ante Rebic, Davide Calabria, Samu Castillejo and Rafael Leao will miss this trip.

Udinese also played AC Milan pretty even in both meetings last season, losing 2-1 at home and drawing them in a 1-1 tie. However, the combined xG margin was 2.4-1.7 in those games.

I have Udinese projected at +244, so I like their spread of +0.5 at +100 odds to pick off a banged-up Milan team playing their seventh match in 21 days in this spot.

Pick: Udinese +0.5 (+100)

Sassuolo vs. Lazio

This is a fade of a very overrated Lazio team. They have a -2 xGDiff, but somehow sit in seventh place. Lazio have scored 32 goals off of 21.6 xG goals, so some negative regression is coming for them at some point.

Defensively, Sassuolo hasn’t been great, but they do a great job at limiting high-quality chances, as they’re fifth in big scoring chances allowed. That is basically how Lazio has scored all of their goals, because they’re 16th in shots per 90 minutes, 12th in box entries and last in crosses completed into the penalty area.

Sassuolo has been pretty good this season, creating 1.4 xG per match and has the fourth most big scoring chances in Serie A play. Lazio has been okay defensively, as they’re 10th in NPxG allowed, but they're one of the worst pressing teams in Italy. So, it’s going to be hard for them to win the ball against Sassuolo, who is top-six versus pressure. 

Lazio’s road form in the Italian top flight has been horrendous, as they have created only 7.1 xG in eight matches and have a -5.3 xGDiff so far.

Since I have Sassuolo projected as a slight favorite in this match, I like the home side via the Draw No Bet line at +105 odds.

Pick: Sassuolo — Draw No Bet (+105)

La Liga Projections

Best Bets

Real Madrid vs. Atlético Madrid

Manager Diego Simone’s side is only allowing 0.81 xG per match and have a +0.63 per game xGDiff, which is the best mark in Spain. Atlético Madrid is also first in shots allowed per 90 minutes, big scoring chances conceded and box entries yielded, per fbref.com.

So, facing a Real Madrid team potentially without Karim Benzema, who's the main reason they're over-performing their xG number, we could see Real Madrid’s offense have some serious trouble trying to break down Atlético Madrid's low block.

Real Madrid did just face a very similar team to Atlético Madrid in Bilbao a little over a week ago and really struggled defending them, allowing 2.8 xG in the game. Atlético Madrid's offensive numbers have been pretty good, sitting at 1.40 NPxG per match, which is third in the Spanish top flight.

Atlético Madrid is also second in big scoring chances created, while Real Madrid has allowed the fifth-most big scoring chances in La Liga this season.

Real Madrid is also doing a pretty poor job with their pressing, as they’re 16th in Offensive PPDA, while Atlético Madrid is the second-best team in Spain against pressure. 

I have Real Madrid projected at +166, so I love Atlético Madrid getting +0.5 on the spread line at -125 odds if Karim Benzema is out.

Pick: Atletico Madrid +0.5 (-125)

Ligue 1 Projections

Best Bets

Lille vs. Lyon

These teams are sitting right next to each other in the middle of the table, but one is far and away better than the other. This Lille team is playing so well at the moment. They're unbeaten across all competitions since that 2-1 loss to PSG back in late October.

Defensively, they've really put the clamps down defensively, as they’ve only allowed more than one xG in a match once in their last eight fixtures, which has included games with Sevilla, Monaco and Rennes. They have now only conceded 17.4 xG in 17 matches and sit No. 1 in France in big scoring chances allowed.

Lyon has been very good offensively in France, averaging 1.78 xG per match, and have a ton of talent up front. However, the main things that are troublesome with Lyon is how shockingly bad their defense has been.

Lyon is allowing 1.74 xG per match and is bottom five in shots per 90, big scoring chances allowed and box entries. This past weekend they allowed a very average Bordeaux offense to create five big scoring chances.

Additionally, Lyon will be without their best defender Jason Denayer until February, so their defense isn’t going to improve any time soon.

I have Lille projected at -116, so I love their draw no bet line at -125 (DraftKings).

Pick: Lille — Draw No Bet (-125)

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PSG vs. Monaco

The Parisians have a huge lead in Ligue 1 at the moment, so as we get deeper into the season, each match becomes a little less meaningful for them. On Sunday, they will be taking on a Monaco side that hasn't only given them problems in the past, but has a world-class defense at the moment.

Monaco is No. 1 in the French top flight in NPxG allowed, shots conceded per 90 minutes and box entries yielded. Monaco is also the best pressing team in Ligue 1, ranking first in PPDA and pressure success rate.

The Parisians are the best in France versus pressure, but what we've seen against teams like RB Leipzig and Manchester City in the Champions League, along with teams like Rennes and Lyon in Ligue 1, manager Mauricio Pochettino's side has really struggled to play through the press.

Even with how good Monaco's defense has been, the reason they're currently sitting in seventh place is because their offense has not been performing at an elite level. Monaco is only averaging 1.21 NPxG per match, which is ninth in Ligue 1. They're also 17th in shots per 90 minutes, so it's going to be difficult for them to create chances against PSG's defense.

I only have 2.44 goals projected for this match, so I love the total staying under three goals at +110 odds.

Pick: Total Under 3 Goals (+110)