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European Soccer Best Bets, Projected Odds & Forecast for Bundesliga, Serie A & Ligue 1 (April 22-25)

European Soccer Best Bets, Projected Odds & Forecast for Bundesliga, Serie A & Ligue 1 (April 22-25) article feature image
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Christian Verheyen/Borussia Mönchengladbach via Getty Images. Pictured: Borussia Mönchengladbach goalkeeper Yann Sommer.

We have reached the stretch run in the European club soccer calendar with only a few matches left on each league’s schedule.

With the top flights in Germany, Spain and France all but wrapped up in their respective title races, there is still massive drama in Serie A, with rivals AC Milan and Inter Milan battling it out for first place. Additionally, there is still a ton to play for in terms of Champions League, Europa League and relegation situations across the continent.

If you’d like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Bundesliga Projections

Best Bets

Freiburg vs. Gladbach

Freiburg Odds  -120
Gladbach Odds +300
Draw +280
Over/Under 2.5 (-175 / +120)
Day | Time Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

The Borussia Mönchengladbach defense continues to leak goals and is showing no signs of improvement. The Bundesliga side has allowed a whopping 13.9 expected goals in its last eight matches. It’s also yielding 1.63 xGA per contest this season, which is 14th in the Bundesliga, per fbref.com

Freiburg plays a very different style than the rest of the German first division since it’s below average from open play, but is far and away the best set-piece offense with 17 goals and 16.7 xG off them this season.

Not surprisingly, Gladbach features the worst set-piece defense in Germany, allowing 13.7 xG off them this season, per OptaSo, don’t be surprised if Freiburg scores via that avenue.

Offense hasn’t been a problem for Gladbach, as it’s still top six in NPxG, big scoring chances, shots per 90 minutes and box entries. The Foals have been on fire as of late as well, creating 12.7 xG in their last seven matches. Freiburg is a top-six defense, but it allows a ton of shots to their opponents. It sits 15th in the Bundesliga in shots per 90 minutes.

So, Gladbach will have chances in this match. Also, the Foals are going to be out for revenge because earlier this season, Freiburg hung six goals on them at Borussia Park.

I have 3.52 goals projected for this contest, so I like the value on the total clearing three goals on the alternative line at +100 odds and will make it my top selection.

Pick: Total Over 3 Goals (+100)


Serie A Projections

Best Bets

Torino vs. Spezia

Torino Odds  -145
Spezia Odds +400
Draw +275
Over/Under 2.5 (-105 / -135)
Day | Time Saturday | 9 a.m. ET
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Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

This is too low of a price for one of the more underrated teams in Italy. For the season, Torino has a +9.1 xGDiff, which is eighth best in the Italian first division. The favorites are taking on Spezia, which is one of Italy’s worst teams with a -25.9 xGDoff on the season, per fbref.com.

This such a good matchup for Torino on so many levels. First off, Torino is best pressing team in the league, ranking first in PPDA and pressure success rate. It’s also second in terms of progressive passes plus dribbles allowed, plus it sits sixth in both high turnovers and shots created off high turnovers.

Spezia is second to last in pressure success rate allowed and 16th in Offensive PPDA. It was very evident the last time they met, as Torino had a 38% pressure success rate and PPDA of 7.05, per understat.com.

Secondly, Spezia has one of the league’s worst defenses. For the season, the club is conceding 1.74 xG per match and has been especially bad of late, allowing 16.1 xG in its last nine tilts. The main problem is it allows far too many shots (16.8 per 90 minutes to be exact), which is the league’s worst mark.

So, even though Torino is just average offensively, ranking 11th in xG per match, I have no doubt it can excel against a club that doesn’t have much motivation considering it’s safe from relegation.

I have Torino projected at -205, so I think we’re getting solid value on the home side at -145 odds via the moneyline ahead of this matchup.

Pick: Torino ML (-145)


Ligue 1 Projections

Best Bets

Rennes vs. Lorient

Rennes Odds  -225
Lorient Odds +575
Draw +350
Over/Under 2.5 (-105 / -135)
Day | Time Sunday | 7 a.m. ET
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Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Rennes is coming off a pretty poor performance against Strasbourg on Wednesday where it only created 0.25 xG overall. However, this is a fantastic “get-right” spot for one of the best offenses in France.

Rennes is averaging a whopping 1.68 xG per match, which is third best in the league. It’s also creating big scoring chances for fun, leading Ligue 1 with 51 in 33 matches.

The side usually plays out of a 4-3-3 system, which is dependent on wingers Martin Terrier and Benjamin Bourigeaud torching opposing defenders up the flanks. It shows, because Rennes is No. 1 in France in crosses completed into the penalty area. That is a major concern for Lorient, who is last in that defensive category.

Rennes has been dominating the bottom half of the table all season, putting up a +18.9 xGDiff against the bottom 10 teams in Ligue 1. Lorient has a decent offense, ranking 10th in xG per match, but it really struggles when it has to face teams that press at a high rate, as it’s 17th in Offensive PPDA, per understat.com.

Rennes is fourth in PPDA, has the third-most high turnovers and most goals in Ligue 1 off those high turnovers, per Opta.

I have Rennes spread projected at -1.49 on the spread line, so I like the value we’re getting giving -1.5 to Lorient at +130 odds and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Rennes -1.5 (+130)

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