Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace Betting Pick, Odds & Preview: A Single-Game Parlay for Saturday

Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace Betting Pick, Odds & Preview: A Single-Game Parlay for Saturday article feature image
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Shaun Botterill/Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool captain Virgil van Dijk.

Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace Odds

Liverpool Odds -475
Crystal Palace Odds +1200
Draw +600
Over/Under 3.5 (+125 / -155)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Premier League clubs coming off impressive victories last time out square off Saturday when Liverpool welcomes Crystal Palace to Anfield.

The Reds, who are sitting pretty in third place on the table with 10 points, are  unbeaten through four league fixtures to start the season. They’re actually tied on 10 points with league-leader Manchester United, as well as Chelsea and Everton, but sit two spots off the top due to tiebreakers.

On the other side, it was a rough jump out of the gate for the Eagles. They opened their campaign winless through three games in the English top flight, but pulled off a stunning 3-0 home shutout against Tottenham Hotspur at Selhurst Park prior to this matchup.

We could be in for quite an interesting meeting, so let’s see what might be in the cards for these combatants.

Liverpool Firing on All Cylinders This Season

The Reds are looking like a title contender, having no real issues in their league schedule so far outside a 1-1 draw with reigning Champions League winner Chelsea two games back. That match was the lone time the Liverpool defense, led by Virgil van Dijk, conceded a goal against EPL opposition.

Liverpool got a test in its first UCL group-stage match, though, rallying for a 3-2 win against Serie A side AC Milan at Anfield. The Reds trailed 2-1 entering the second half, but received goals from Mohamed Salah and the game winner from Jordan Henderson to thwart the Rossoneri’s upset bid.

When it comes to the advanced metrics, Liverpool held a 2.4-1.4 advantage in the xG battle and held the ball 60 percent of the time in the victory. In league play, the Reds lead the EPL with 11.7 expected goals. They’ve yielded 4.2 xGA, resulting in a +7.5 xG differential and +1.87 xGDiff per 90 minutes.

Crystal Palace Hoping for Second Consecutive Upset

Manager Patrick Vieira finally found what he was looking for with the Eagles. Needless to say, it was a monster win early in his time as the club’s top man.

After kicking off its season with defeats against West Ham United (4-2) and Aston Villa (2-0), Crystal Palace earned its first point with a 2-2 draw against Southampton. Then, the club struck for some magic on home soil with its thorough thrashing off Spurs, which had started its own year off with a 1-0 shocker against league favorite Manchester City on debut.

The Eagles, who got a brace from Odsonne Édouard and goal from Wilfried Zaha all deep in the second half, finished with a whopping 2.4 xG and held Spurs to a minuscule 0.1 xG in the shutout. That offensive output was north of 61 percent of its total xG output (3.9 xG) for the entire season, which has to have Vieira optimistic his men have turned the corner.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Unlike the craziness we saw in Liverpool’s UCL victory, I expect the host to deliver a professional, winning performance. The Reds are the better outfit, plus I firmly believe their current foes will bounce off that win against Spurs.

That said, I’m backing a Single Game Parlay that pairs Liverpool on the moneyline with the total under 3.5 goals at -110 odds as my top pick. Obviously, I like the  Reds to triumph, so taking the total pushed up to that number gives me more confidence. And when you throw in these historical facts, I really don’t see how you can find better value:

  • Liverpool has shut out Crystal Palace in their last three meetings across all competitions.
  • There have been less than three goals in eight of the Reds’ last nine home league games.
  • The Eagles have allowed at least two goals in their last four road league tilts.

As for our routine wager on the player props (which hit Friday thanks to Newcastle United standout Allan Saint-Maximin scoring anytime at +220 odds), take a shot on Sadio Mané to score anytime at +125 odds. The standout winger has scored in eight consecutive matches against Crystal Palace, so let’s go with him instead of Salah (-165) and Diogo Jota (-105) on the same line.

Pick: Single Game Parlay — Liverpool & Total Under 3.5 Goals (-110)

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