Premier League Week 6: Betting Against Trendy Underdogs
Clive Mason/Getty Images. Pictured: Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsey taking a shot against Everton
- Premier League Week 6 action kicks off Saturday morning at 7:30 a.m. ET between Fulham and Watford (NBC Sports).
- The public is heavily supporting some of the underdogs this weekend, including Watford (+190 at Fulham) and Bournemouth (+160 at Burnley).
- After analyzing all 10 matches on the board, I've picked out three value bets to make.
The Premier League season hasn’t provided anything shocking yet as each of the 25 teams closing +500 or higher on the moneyline has failed to pull off the upset.
2018-19 Season Trends
After an abysmal 2017-18 season, road teams have turned the corner thus far this season by winning 40% of league matches. Draws went just 1-9 again in Week 5 and have now cost bettors 17.32 units overall.
The favorites have been keeping up with expectations, yet this weekend there are a number of trendy underdogs backed by the public.
By analyzing the betting market and historical data, I’ve picked out three plays to make for Premier League Week 6.
2018-19 Season Record: 5-14-1 (-6.15 units)
Watford at Fulham (Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET, NBC Sports)
- Watford Odds: +150
- Fulham Odds: +190
- Draw Odds: +250
- Over/Under: 2.5 (o-135)
There have been no draws for Watford yet this season but that should change this weekend with a tough road game in West London. On the other side, Fulham have a chance to pick up points at home before playing tough league matches against Everton and Arsenal. This is a battle that both squads feel they can win, and both have a win probability greater than 33%.
The draw is a very contrarian play in this matchup (<10% of bets) and there’s also been movement on the Under 2.5, which should cater toward a 1-1 finish. Both teams have gone over the total in their last four league games, but sharp bettors are leaning toward the under.
On the moneyline, Watford have received the bulk of public support but their odds have actually increased to +205 on two separate occasions. Bookmakers don’t seem to be concerned with the overwhelming ticket support for the road side, and sharp money hasn’t really appeared in this game yet.
I’m fading the public bettors and going with the draw, especially at generous +250 odds.
The Bet: Draw +250
Newcastle at Crystal Palace (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET, NBC Sports Gold)
- Newcastle Odds: +280
- Crystal Palace Odds: +120
- Draw Odds: +238
- Over/Under: 2.5 (u-135)
It’s easy to pick on struggling clubs but Newcastle just don’t seem to have any identity right now, and manager Rafa Benitez is on the hot seat. They’ve earned just one point and are tied with Burnley in the cellar of the EPL table.
Crystal Palace are a much better squad with Wilfried Zaha in the lineup and he’s already contributed three goals in four matches this season. His recent comments on the number of fouls against him has spurred the Newcastle manager to respond, and there’s already a bit of animosity heading into the contest.
Surprisingly, public bettors are pulling for a Newcastle upset with nearly 50% of moneyline wagers, but I see no reason to back them. At +280 odds they’re a very trendy road underdog, and one that I’m ready to fade this weekend.
Despite being shut out in both home games this season, I expect Crystal Palace to bounce back and will gladly take the plus-money odds on the win.
The Bet: Crystal Palace (+120)
Biggest Line Moves
The biggest line moves since opening have been on Arsenal, Bournemouth and Wolves, though all are vastly different prices.
Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here.
Most Lopsided Betting %
Leicester City (-160) are the most popular bet of the weekend with more than 80% of tickets. The public clearly believes in them to respond after an ugly 4-2 loss at Bournemouth last weekend, but some of the love may be due to Huddersfield’s struggles.
There are some big favorites who aren’t receiving a lot of public support, and in those cases I think there’s great value in parlaying them. This weekend there are three favorites at -200 or higher that all are worthy: Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City.
- Watford-Fulham Draw (+250)
- Crystal Palace (+120) vs. Newcastle
- Liverpool/Man City/Arsenal parlay (+108)