Premier League Week 6: Betting Against Trendy Underdogs

Sep 21, 2018 12:55 PM EDT
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Clive Mason/Getty Images. Pictured: Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsey taking a shot against Everton

  • Premier League Week 6 action kicks off Saturday morning at 7:30 a.m. ET between Fulham and Watford (NBC Sports).
  • The public is heavily supporting some of the underdogs this weekend, including Watford (+190 at Fulham) and Bournemouth (+160 at Burnley).
  • After analyzing all 10 matches on the board, I've picked out three value bets to make.

The Premier League season hasn’t provided anything shocking yet as each of the 25 teams closing +500 or higher on the moneyline has failed to pull off the upset.

2018-19 Season Trends

After an abysmal 2017-18 season, road teams have turned the corner thus far this season by winning 40% of league matches. Draws went just 1-9 again in Week 5 and have now cost bettors 17.32 units overall.

The favorites have been keeping up with expectations, yet this weekend there are a number of trendy underdogs backed by the public.

By analyzing the betting market and historical data, I’ve picked out three plays to make for Premier League Week 6.

2018-19 Season Record: 5-14-1 (-6.15 units)


Watford at Fulham (Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET, NBC Sports)

  • Watford Odds: +150
  • Fulham Odds: +190
  • Draw Odds: +250
  • Over/Under: 2.5 (o-135)

There have been no draws for Watford yet this season but that should change this weekend with a tough road game in West London. On the other side, Fulham have a chance to pick up points at home before playing tough league matches against Everton and Arsenal. This is a battle that both squads feel they can win, and both have a win probability greater than 33%.

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