Manchester City vs. Leeds Odds, Prediction, Preview: The Prop to Bet for Tuesday EPL Match

Manchester City vs. Leeds Odds, Prediction, Preview: The Prop to Bet for Tuesday EPL Match article feature image
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Michael Regan/Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City goaltender Ederson.

  • Manchester City is a massive favorite over Leeds United in Tuesday afternoon English Premier League action.
  • The line has grown since yesterday, with Man City moving from -700 to -750, but Brad Cunningham is targeting a scoring prop with the Cityzens as such a big favorite.
  • Get his full Man City vs. Leeds preview and pick below.

Man City vs. Leeds Odds

Man City Odds -750
Leeds Odds +1800
Draw +850
Over/Under 3.5 (-105 / -115)
Day | Time Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Manchester City looks to keep pace with Liverpool and Chelsea in the Premier League title race when they host Leeds United on Tuesday at Etihad Stadium.

The Cityzens earned a 1-0 result over Wolves this past Saturday, marking their sixth consecutive win in the English top flight. That streak now puts Manchester City atop the table with a one-point lead over Liverpool and a two-point advantage over Chelsea.

The Cityzens are big favorites again this week, with a pretty favorable schedule ahead of them. For that reason, they could really start to build a lead in league play

On the other side, the Peacocks lost a heartbreaker at Stamford Bridge last weekend, giving up a penalty in stoppage time to suffer a 3-2 defeat.

2⃣ penalti
2⃣ gol
3⃣ poin

Perfetto, Jorginho!👌 #CFCIndopic.twitter.com/Ju2V2RCuY6

— Chelsea FC Indonesia (@chelseafc_indo) December 12, 2021

Leeds is now sitting in 15th place, just five points above the relegation zone. With a gauntlet of a schedule ahead of them, including Arsenal and Liverpool on deck, the Peacocks could fall into the relegation battle as we hit the halfway point of the season.

The performance against Chelsea was encouraging, but heading on the road to play one of the best teams in the world is not going to give manager Marcelo Bielsa’s side much hope.

Man City Boasts Arguably World’s Best Defense

Manchester City’s defense has probably been the best in the world this season. The Cityzens are allowing only 0.59 NPxG per match, 6.56 shots per 90 minutes 7.31 box entries per 90 minutes and only seven big scoring chances in 16 games, per fbref.com.

All of those are not just the best marks in England, but No. 1 among Europe’s top-five leagues. So, I am not sure if Leeds, who will be without Kelvin Phillips, Patrick Bamford and Rodrigo, are going to create anything of substance against the Cityzens’ defense. 

In fact, the last time that Manchester City allowed a Premier League opponent to create more than one expected goal was Oct. 30 against Crystal Palace and they were down a man for the final 45 minutes in that match. That’s how dominant they’ve been.

Meanwhile, the offense is averaging a cool 2.24 NPxG per match and is second in every single offensive metric behind Liverpool. So, the Cityzens should have no problem carving up Leeds’ defense.

Some outrageous goals from November! 🤩☔️#ManCity | @XylemInc pic.twitter.com/R6J79DBLyk

— Manchester City (@ManCity) December 9, 2021

 

Upcoming Leeds Schedule Not Full of Holiday Cheer

Bielsa’s side are in a very difficult portion of their schedule having to face Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool in a four-match stretch.

The biggest problem for Leeds in this matchup is their frenetic pressing and high tempo style of play isn’t going to work against manager Pep Guardiola’s side that’s not only the best team in the league against pressure, but is incredible at changing his tactics to best breakdown his opponents.

So, for this match, I’d imagine City will either play a high tempo with Leeds and put four or five goals in the back of the net. Or they could play their slow, pragmatic build-up approach and force Leeds to try and defend inside their own final third for a majority of the match, which the Peacocks are not capable of doing.

Defensively, Leeds might be 16th in NPxG allowed and 15th in shots conceded per 90 minutes, but they’re not yielding a ton of high-quality chances. Leeds has allowed the eighth fewest big scoring chances, fourth fewest box entries, and fourth fewest crosses completed into their own penalty area. So, this is a defense due for a lot of positive regression.


Betting Analysis & Pick

I have a hard time seeing how Leeds is going score against the best defense in the world right now without two of their best attackers and best midfielder.

That said, I have the Both Teams To Score — No line projected at -191, so based on that there’s a little value on the current line of -150 odds.

Pick: Both Teams to Score — No (-150)

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