Premier League Betting Picks, Predictions, Preview: Projections & Favorite Bets, Including Manchester City & West Ham (Oct. 23-24)

Premier League Betting Picks, Predictions, Preview: Projections & Favorite Bets, Including Manchester City & West Ham (Oct. 23-24) article feature image
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Simon Stacpoole/Offside/Offside via Getty Images. Pictured: West Ham United standout Michail Antonio.

The Premier League title race is starting to heat up with Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester City all within two points of each other as we hit the quarter point of the season.

Last weekend, there were a few surprising score lines, as Leicester City poured in four goals during its 4-2 rout of Manchester United. Arsenal needed a goal in stoppage time to draw with Crystal Palace and Wolves scored three goals in the final 10 minutes to erase a 2-0 deficit against Aston Villa.

Wolves were 2-0 down to Aston Villa after 80 minutes.

They won 3-2 with a Ruben Neves free kick in the 95th 🤯

(via @NBCSportsSoccer)pic.twitter.com/LtkIVjrEMn

— B/R Football (@brfootball) October 16, 2021

This weekend is headlined by a huge match at Old Trafford with Cristiano Ronaldo and Manchester United hosting Mohamed Salah and Liverpool. There is also a top-four clash as well, with Brighton & Hove Albion hosting Manchester City, so we have a fantastic slate of action.

If you’re new to our soccer coverage, I will be providing my projections for every Premier League match, along with every other game from Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga and Ligue 1, plus Champions League and Europa League when they’re in action.

If you’d like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Leeds vs. Wolves

Leeds Odds +150
Wolves Odds +190
Draw  +245
Over/Under 2.5 (-115 / -105)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Leeds has been really bad to start the season, picking up only six points from their first eight matches. However, it’s mainly because of their defense, which has conceded 14.8 expected goals against thus far. That’s the second most in the league and they’ve allowed the most shots per 90 minutes as well. Yet, that’s almost to be expected in manager Marcelo Bielsa’s style of play, which isn’t for the faint of heart.

The Peacocks essentially play a full-court press at all times. Whenever the opposing team has the ball, they push forward in hopes of winning the ball and starting a counterattack. It sounds great on paper, but why more teams don’t employ this style of play is because it often leaves you exposed at the back, which is why they concede so many chances.

Well, now they’re going up against a Wolves attack that is top eight in the league in NPxG per match, shots per 90 minutes, big scoring chances and box entries. In fact, Wolves has the fourth best non-penalty xGDiff at +5.16 overall.

Wolves have scored 5 goals from 10.70(xG) this season – the largest underperformance of any team.

— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) October 13, 2021

The main reason for that is because they’ve been one of the best defensive teams in the English top flight this season. They’ve allowed 0.87 NPxG per match and 10.13 shots/90 minutes, which is second to only Manchester City. They’ve allowed only four big scoring chances, which is the lowest mark in the league, per fbref.com.

This is maybe the most important stat of them all: Wolves are third in pressure success rate when Leeds is 17th in against pressure this season, so the visitors are going to have many chances on the counter against Bielsa’s side.

I love their Wolves Draw no Bet line at +100 odds via DraftKings and will make it my top selection.

Pick: Wolves — Draw No Bet (+100)

Brighton vs. Man City

Brighton Odds +650
Man City Odds -250
Draw  +400
Over/Under 2.5 (-120 / +100)
Day | Time Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Brighton’s offensive numbers aren’t where they were last season, but the defense is still really good despite selling Ben White to Arsenal. 

The Seagulls are third in the Premier League in NPxG allowed at 0.91; fifth in shots allowed per 90 minutes; and, third in big scoring chances conceded. Yet, what makes Brighton’s defense so good is their pressing. They have the third most pressures in the league and have the No. 1 pressure success rate, but they’re going up against the best team in the league against pressure in Manchester City.

Now, Brighton’s offense hasn’t been great at all, averaging only 1.10 xG goals per match, only created five big scoring chances and are 13th in shots/90 minutes. So, the Peacocks are going to have a lot of difficulty trying to create against one of the best defenses in the world that has only allowed a total of 4.71 NPxG in eight contests. 

Even though City’s offense obviously has been prolific, I do think Brighton is well organized and disciplined enough to hold them in check and keep this match from getting out of hand. Also, both of these teams have really slow build up play to get into attack, which also favors a low-scoring affair.

I only have 2.21 goals projected for this match, so I think there’s some value on Under 2.5 goals at +100 odds on DraftKings in this contest.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+100)


West Ham vs. Spurs

West Ham Odds +145
Spurs Odds +195
Draw  +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-120 / +100)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

I think West Ham is undervalued in this spot due to a combination of two things. First, the Hammers’ offense with Michail Antonio up top has been awesome. Antonio already has five goals in league play and has a 0.83 xG per 90-minute scoring rate.

West Ham is also top five in NPxG per match, big scoring chances and box entries. Also, the Hammers are one of the best teams against pressure, while Spurs defensively has the sixth most pressures, but is 18th in pressure success rate. 

If you’re going up against West Ham, you better have a solid midfield because they have one of the best defensive pairings in Declan Rice and Tomáš Souček, who can really control a game if you don’t have capable midfielders at winning the ball. 

The strength. The nutmeg. The finish.

Declan Rice, take a bow ⚒. pic.twitter.com/ATDf2O9gXn

— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) September 16, 2021

Yeah, Tottenham has these guys named Harry Kane and Son Heung-min, but Spurs are 15th in NPxG per match; 16th in shots/90 minutes; 16th in big scoring chances; and, 12th in box entries. Also, the club has one of the worst offenses against pressure and West Ham has the second-best pressure success rate. 

Both teams played in Europe on Thursday, with West Ham hosting at London Stadium and Tottenham journeying to the Netherlands, so it has been more travel for Spurs, who had to head all the way up to Newcastle last Sunday. 

I have West Ham projected at -107, so I love their Draw No Bet line of -135 odds at DraftKings in this matchup. 

Pick: West Ham — Draw No Bet (-135)

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Brentford vs. Leicester City

Brentford Odds +165
Leicester City Odds +170
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (-105/ -110)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
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Yes, Brentford has the fifth-best xG differential in the Premier League. Yes, the Bees should have beaten Chelsea last weekend, but their entire offense is built off creating big chances.

They’re averaging 1.58 xG per match and boast the fifth-most big scoring chances, but they’re only averaging 11 shots/90 minutes, which is 16th overall and 9.75 box entries per match (18th in the league), per fbref.com.

Now, Leicester’s defense hasn’t been great so far, but they’re tied with Wolves for the fewest big scoring chances allowed this season.

Brentford is also the most pressured team in the league, allowing the highest pressure success rate. And like I already mentioned, the Foxes had the most pressures of any club in the Premier League this season in last weekend’s win against Manchester United.

Leicester is starting to turn a corner, especially offensively. They torched the Red Devils, creating 3.1 xG and now has a ton of depth at the striker position. It’s not all reliant on Jaime Vardy, due to the fact Kelechi Iheanacho and Patson Daka are two really talented strikers.

In fact, Daka just scored four goals against Spartak Moscow on Wednesday in the Europa League and that defense was only allowing 0.60 xG per match in the Russian Premier League.

44': Spartak 2-0 Leicester
45': Spartak 2-1 Leicester
48': Spartak 2-2 Leicester
54': Spartak 2-3 Leicester

PATSON DAKA WITH A 9-MINUTE HAT-TRICK TO FIRE LEICESTER INTO THE LEAD 💥 pic.twitter.com/RM0pLrGsc2

— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) October 20, 2021

So, I think the Foxes will be able to create a ton of chances considering they’re now pretty much fully healthy for the first time in a long time.

I have Leicester projected at +139 odds, so I think there’s some value on their Draw No Bet line of -110 at DraftKings and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Leicester City — Draw No Bet (-110)

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