Sunday Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Newcastle vs. Spurs Betting Preview (Oct. 17)

Sunday Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Newcastle vs. Spurs Betting Preview (Oct. 17) article feature image
Credit:

Jack Thomas – WWFC/Wolves via Getty Images. Pictured: Allan Saint-Maximin.

  • Newcastle welcomes Tottenham Hotspur to St. James’ Park for Sunday’s Premier League matchup.
  • The Magpies are the underdogs in this spot, but face an opponent missing key players.
  • BJ Cunningham breaks down the matchup below and explains why’s forecasting Newcastle to earn the upset win.

Newcastle vs. Spurs Odds

Newcastle Odds +225
Spurs Odds +125
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-125 / +105)
Day | Time Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Newcastle United look to turn things around out of the international break when they host Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday at St. James Park.

It’s been a really bad start to the season for Steve Bruce’s men, as the Magpies are currently sitting in 19th place with only three points from their first seven matches. With the new ownership, Steve Bruce’s days appear to be numbered at the club and another poor result on Sunday could see Newcastle make a change.

On the other side, Nuno Espírito Santo is not off to the best of starts in his managerial career at Tottenham. Spurs won their first three matches of the season but have only picked up three points from their last four Premier League matches.

Spurs need all three points in this match to keep pace with the top of the table, but it’s going to be difficult considering they’re shorthanded coming into this match.

Defensive Issues Holding Newcastle Back

The biggest problem for Newcastle to begin the season has been their defense. The Magpies have allowed 16 goals from 13.3 xG, but a lot of that had to do with some terrible goalkeeping in the first part of the campaign.

For the first four games of the season, Newcastle were playing third-choice goalkeeper Freddie Woodman, who really struggled between the posts. The last three matches have featured Karl Darlow in goal, and it’s been a night-and-day difference.

(graphic per fbref.com)

Offensively, Newcastle has been above average to start, creating 8.8 non-penalty expected goals (NPxG). Having a healthy Allan Saint-Maximin has made a world of a difference for the Magpies since he ranks in the top 10 in the league in shot-creating actions, passes leading to a shot and NPxG plus expected assists.

Saint-Maximin will be a big problem for a Spurs defense that to this point has allowed 10.6 xG and the third most shot-creating actions in the league.

Spurs Struggling Mightily to Start Season

Tottenham’s offensive numbers through their first seven matches are quite concerning, considering they have one of the league’s best strikers in Harry Kane. The club has only created 6.5 NPxG, which is the fourth-lowest mark in the Premier League. In fact, Kane has not found the back of the net yet in league play and has only created 1.23 xG on the season.

Spurs also rank in the bottom half of just about every offensive metric like progressive passes, touches in the opponents’ penalty area, crosses completed into the 18-yard box and shot-creating actions. So even though Newcastle has been terrible defensively, it’s not a sure thing that Tottenham are going to create a lot of chances.

Tottenham will also be without both Heung-min Son and Bryan Gil, who tested positive for COVID-19.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Newcastle does have some advantages offensively over Tottenham, whose poor performance in front of net is very concerning, especially without Son.

I have Newcastle projected at +190, so I think there is some value on the Magpies to grab all three points at +225 or better.

Pick: Newcastle ML (+225)

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