West Ham vs. Brighton Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction, Preview (Dec. 1)
Naomi Baker/Getty Images. Pictured: Declan Rice
- West Ham are plus-money favorites on Wednesday against Brighton & Hove Albion.
- The Hammers sit fourth in the Premier League, while the Seagulls look for momentum to get their season going.
- BJ Cunningham breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.
West Ham vs. Brighton Odds
|West Ham Odds||+100|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+105 / -120)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 2:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
West Ham looks to rebound from back to back losses, as they host ninth-place Brighton on Wednesday.
The Hammers have hit a bit of a rough patch coming out of the international break, losing back-to-back matches in the Premier League to Wolves and Manchester City on the road. To make matters worse, they lost their best center back, Angelo Ogbonna, to a season-ending knee injury.
However, West Ham is still currently sitting inside the top four and desperately needs all three points to increase the gap between them and the rest of the pack.
Brighton is having a resurgent season, meanwhile, and sitting pretty in ninth place as we head towards the Festive F.ixtures. The Seagulls form has been up and down, as they started off really hot, but have cooled off going 0-6-2 (W-D-L) in their last eight matches.
Another result at the Olympic Stadium on Wednesday would likely see them stay in the top half of the table, as we head into the busiest portion of the Premier League season.
Can West Ham Get Back on Track?
After defeating Liverpool before the international break, West Ham has put up back-to-back poor performances against Wolves and Manchester City. Granted, they were both on the road, but the fact the Hammers only had 0.67 xG total in those two matches is concerning.
The loss of Angelo Ogbanna clearly is affecting West Ham’s build-up play, which shouldn’t come as a surprise since he has the most touches of any West Ham defender this season in the defensive third and the defensive penalty area.
On Wednesday, they’re facing a really good pressing team in Brighton, who is fourth in PPDA and pressure success rate, per fbref.com. So it’s going to make it even more difficult for West Ham to try and build out of the back.
(graphic via fbref.com)
West Ham is still top six in npxG, shots per 90, shots per 90 minutes, and big scoring chances. However, after facing two top-six defenses by expected goals in Wolves and Manchester City, without much production going forward gives me pause about the Hammers offensive prowess against an elite defensive team like Brighton.
The Seagulls had a classic Brighton performance this past Saturday against Leeds. They settled for a 0-0 draw, but won the xG by a 1.99-0.80 margin.
*(graphic via infogol.net)
Brighton is still playing at an elite defensive level, only allowing 1.11 NPxG per match. They’re also fifth in shots allowed per 90 minutes, third in big scoring chances allowed and sixth in crosses completed into their penalty area, which is huge because West Ham is second in the league in crosses completed into the box.
The Seagulls have also been pretty decent away from home, losing just once this season, which was to Aston Villa, which wasn’t able to create much. They have also have around an even NPxGD in six matches.
Also Enock Mwepu is back for Brighton. He and Yves Bissouma playing together is a nightmare for teams trying to beat the press because they’re two of the best pressing midfielders in the league.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Without Ogbonna West Ham has really struggled defensively, which has put more pressure on Declan Rice to help out in defense, which in turn has hurt his ability to get forward in attack.
Playing a good pressing and defensive team like Brighton is a bad matchup for West Ham, considering those are the strengths of the two previous teams they just lost to in convincing fashion.
I have West Ham projected at +120, so I think there is a little bit of value on the Seagulls +0.5 at -115 (DraftKings)
Pick: Brighton +0.5 (-115)