Saturday Premier League Updated Odds, Picks & Prediction: Southampton vs. Leeds Betting Preview
David Rogers/Getty Images. Pictured: Leeds United standout Brenden Aaronson, left, celebrates his goal with teammate Jack Harrison.
Southampton vs. Leeds Odds
| Southampton Odds | +125 |
| Leeds Odds | +210 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-140 / +100) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Southampton and Leeds United experienced opposite results on the opening weekend of Premier League action.
The former was on the receiving end of a 4-1 drubbing at Tottenham, while the latter picked up a 2-1 home victory against Wolves.
Now, they switch venues for this clash. Southampton is looking for its second consecutive home victory against Leeds, which has earned a result against its host in three of the last four meetings.
Southampton
Although it was a poor result for Southampton in its opener, the underlying metrics weren't indicative.
Against a potent Spurs attack, Southampton's defense conceded only 1.57 expected goals and a single big scoring chance. At the same time, manager Ralph Hasenhüttl's attack played dreadfully, producing 0.48 xG on only 10 shots.
The good news? It now goes up against a Leeds defense against which it created four xG across two legs last season, including a 2.3 xG output in last campaign's fixture at the St. Mary's Stadium, per fbref.com.
Additionally, Southampton performed significantly better at home against inferior opposition last season. In nine matches against the bottom half, it posted a +0.86 xGDiff/90 minutes, up from a -0.06 xGDiff/90 at home.
By The Numbers
- 1.55 — Southampton's xG per 90 minutes at home against bottom-half sides last season.
- 68 — Percentage of home matches in which Southampton earned at least a point last season.
Leeds United
If Leeds is to earn a result in this game, it will need to overcome a number of historical hurdles.
Not only did the Peacocks lose both matches to Southampton on xG last season, but it was abysmal away from home in general. Last season, they posted the second-worst road xGDiff in the EPL, allowing almost two xG per 90 in those fixtures.
In the season prior, Leeds posted the seventh-worst road xGDiff in the league, but allowed the most road xG in the entire top flight.
Lastly, despite winning 2-1 at home last weekend, manager Jesse Marsch's side ran incredibly hot. The final tallies saw Leeds concede only once on 1.84 xG, while grabbing two goals off only 0.8 expected in the contest.
By The Numbers
- 74 — Total road xG conceded by Leeds in last two seasons.
- +2.1 — Road Goals minus road xG by the Peacocks in the prior campaign.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Put simply, I'm expecting pure chaos in this match.
In the last four head-to-head meetings between these clubs, there have been an average of 2.43 combined xG overall. Just last season, the two meetings saw a combined 2.65 combined xG across those legs.
As referenced earlier, we know Leeds has little interest in defending away from Elland Road. Combine that with Southampton's historical attacking record against bottom-half clubs and I think bettors can count on the host bagging at least a couple of goals.
That said, this Southampton defense absolutely stinks and has only held Leeds under one xG once In the last four head-to-head meetings. Plus, dating back to Marsch's first match with the Peacocks, they created 1.20 xG/90 minutes.
It's a steep price, but I believe the juice on the total clearing 2.5 goals is justified and will back it for my top play.
The Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-135)
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