Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Prediction (Saturday, July 4): Where’s the Betting Value In Norwich City vs. Brighton?

Credit:

Malcolm Couzens/Getty Images. Pictured: Neal Maupay of Brighton & Hove Albion.

Norwich City odds +245 [BET NOW]
Brighton odds +120 [BET NOW]
Draw +230 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-130) [BET NOW]
Time Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET
TV NBC Sports

Odds as of Friday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Clubs in dire straits go at it Saturday when Norwich City hosts Brighton & Hove Albion in a crucial Premier League showdown at Carrow Road.

Norwich City is last on the league table, sitting on 21 points, and needs the full points against Brighton to have any shot at avoiding relegation. Brighton has found just slightly more success than its opponent this season, putting together a campaign that has it in 15th place with 33 points.

Yet, despite their better position on the table, the Seagulls have been abysmal as of late when it comes to finding the back of the net. Brighton, currently 12th in expected goals (41.11) in the league, has been shut out in four of its last seven Premier League contests and have just four goals during that stretch.

On the other side, Norwich City has endured all sorts of issues on its attack and things have gotten worse as the season has progressed. The Canaries, who are 18th in expected goals (33.52) out of 20 Premier League clubs, have been shut out in seven of their last eight league tilts. Its lone win during that stretch was a shocking 1-0 victory against Leicester City.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Defensively, Brighton wouldn’t be where it is if not for its ability to stymie opponents on a relatively consistent basis. The Seagulls are mid-pack in expected goals against (47.03), which is good enough for 11th in the league. Norwich City sits two places off the bottom with 57.73 expected goals against and must drastically improve that number the rest of the way.

When trying to handicap this match, it’s obvious you have two clubs who are just not that good. These teams have struggled mightily on both sides of the pitch, with Norwich City faring much worse along the way.

Suffice it to say, I find this match to be relatively flavorless and two clubs knowing any kind of mistake could be all the difference come full time.

This doesn’t look like anything but a low-scoring affair, which means I am backing the total staying under the number. If you’re looking for a side, go with Brighton at anything north of plus-120 on the line. The Seagulls have so much more to play for and a win here would put them nine points clear of the bottom three, which would push them that much closer to safety.

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-125)
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Pick: Brighton (+120)
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Norwich City vs. Brighton & Hove Albion Tale of the Tape

  • The total has stayed under 2.5 goals in Norwich City’s last three matches against Brighton across all competitions
  • Brighton has earned a draw in five of its last eight league tilts
  • The total has stayed under 2.5 goals in Brighton’s last three road league contests
  • Norwich City has lost seven of its last nine Premier League matches
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