Premier League Odds, Betting Pick, Prediction: Norwich City vs. Southampton Preview (Friday, June 19)

Southampton at Norwich Odds, Picks

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Project Restart is complete, the Premier League is back, and Friday’s doubleheader kicks off with mid-table Southampton battling lowly Norwich City, who are in danger of headed straight back down to the Championship.

Headed into the break, Norwich lost three of four matches, nabbing a 1-0 win against Leicester sandwiched between losses to Liverpool, Wolves, and Sheffield United.

The Canaries will be desperate for points as they sit six points from safety with nine matches to play.

Norwich’s attack goes as striker Teemu Pukki goes, and his form significantly worsened heading into the 100-day layoff. He’s their leading goal scorer with 11 on the year, but the popular Finn only has two goals in his last 11 starts and none in his last five. Without him finishing chances, the Canaries don’t have many other options for goals.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

As much as betting against Norwich has been profitable this season, Friday’s pick is more of a bet on Southampton, who completely turned around their performances and play style since November.

After losing 9-0 to Leicester City in November, there were calls to fire manager Ralph Hasenhüttl. Southampton had won two, drawn two and lost eight of their first 12 matches headed into the November international break.

Since returning from that break, switching to a back-four and backing Hasenhuttl, the Saints won seven, drew two and lost three of their next 12. They now sit on 34 points and that turn in form makes their underlying numbers underrate them.

Based on expected goals alone, Southampton should be a top-10 team. They rank seventh in xGF and 12th in xGA.

One of those matches that fueled Southampton’s turnaround was a December 2-1 home win over Norwich, where the Saints went up 2-0 before halftime and held on for a win in the reverse fixture.

Southampton’s biggest edge in this match comes in the ability to penetrate into the opponent’s six-yard box, where striker Danny Ings has proven efficient this season.

Ings has 15 goals to lead the Saints, who have created 14.56 xG from this area. Norwich, on the other hand, have scored two goals from inside the six-yard box, and conceded 16.31 xGA.

The Saints could’ve turned away from Hasenhüttl and his pressing tactics, but instead they rank third in passes allowed per defensive action to only Leicester and Manchester City. They doubled down and the results have paid off.

Against a Norwich team which ranks fourth-highest in allowing opponents to complete passes within 20 yards of goal, I’m expecting Southampton to control large portions of this match. There are concerns about Southampton’s minor hiccup before the break, losing four of five in the PL.

But the Saints aren’t entirely safe from relegation, so I’m expecting a full effort to put themselves near safety with a win. At plus-money, I’ll take Southampton to take all three points from this one.