Monday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions: Wolverhampton vs. Crystal Palace (July 20)

Credit:

Sam Bagnall – AMA/Getty Images

  • Wolves are a huge favorite over Crystal Palace on Monday against Crystal Palace as they battle for a Europa League spot next season.
  • Palace has secured its spot in the EPL next season and isn't playing for anything at this point. Wolves meanwhile have been excellent since the season restarted last month.
  • Get Brad Cunningham's full preview and model projection below.

EPL Odds: Wolves vs. Crystal Palace

Wolves odds -215 [BET NOW]
Crystal Palace odds +675 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +320 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (+123/-155) [BET NOW]
Time Monday, 1 p.m. ET
TV NBCSN

Odds as of Sunday afternoon and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Wolves continue their push to secure a Europa League spot as they battle Crystal Place on Monday. With Tottenham’s victory over Leicester on Sunday, Wolves now need a win to go back ahead by one point for the potentially lone Europa League spot. If Chelsea beat Arsenal in the FA Cup final, then the sixth-place team in the table would qualify for the Europa League.

Crystal Palace have already secured another season in the Premier League, so they will be playing for pride on Monday.

Wolves

Wolves have been in good form since the restart, grabbing 13 of a possible 21 points and boasting a +3.47 xG differential. They’ve been stout defensively allowing only 0.64 xG per match, which is the best record in the Premier League since the restart.

Wolves’ results at the Molineux Stadium haven’t been great this season, taking only 28 points from 18 matches, which ranks 10th in the Premier League. However, as of late they’ve been dominant at home. Over their last six matches at the Molineux Stadium, Wolves are outscoring their opponents on average by 1.17 xG per match (1.64 xGF, 0.47 xGA).

With a match against Chelsea to finish the season, Wolves need all three points in this match if they want to have a chance at European football next season.

Crystal Palace

Outside of Norwich, Crystal Palace have been the worst team in the Premier League since the restart. The Eagles seem like they just want the season to end as they’ve lost six straight matches by a combined score of 15 to 2.

The underlying metrics in those six matches have not been pretty, as the Eagles’ offense has been putrid, averaging 0.75 xG per match. In fact, they’ve created only four big scoring chances (greater than 35% chance of scoring) since the restart. With their offense sputtering, it’s difficult to see how they are going to score against Wolves’ defense.

Crystal Palace’s underlying metrics have also been terrible away from home. The Eagles are losing on average by 0.95 xG per match when playing on the road this season (0.85 xGF, 1.80 xGA). I expect their poor road performance to continue on Monday.

Analysis

I don’t see this match going any other way than a Wolves blowout. Based on my model, I think there is a little value in backing the home side:

  • Wolves projected odds: -293 (74.56% win probability)
  • Crystal Palace projected odds: +2811 (3.44%)
  • Draw projected odds: +354 (22.00%)
  • Wolves projected xG: 1.74
  • Crystal Palace projected xG: 0.48

Since I have Wolves’ margin of victory at 1.26 in this match, I am going to back their spread of -1.5 at +150.

PICK: Wolves -1.5

+150 at DraftKings

CO, NJ, PA, IN, WV only.
How would you rate this article?

Top Offers

Odds Boosts
See More >
Odds boosts are simply regular bets offered at enticing odds. They're available to everyone and there's no limit to how many you can bet.
Sportsbook Reviews
See More >
Discover the best online sports betting sites and take advantage of bonus offers from legal sportsbooks.
Expert Picks
See More >
See what plays the Action Network experts are making for all of today's games.
PRO Membership
See More >
Access betting systems and signals to get daily, actionable picks.
Download the App
See More >
Download the Action app to track all your bets in one place. Exclusive data helped you make smarter betting decisions.
Newsletter
See More >
The best sports betting newsletter with trends, insights and news - condensed in a two-minute read.
Live Odds
See More >
See live odds and the best lines for every game.

Follow Us On Social

Top Stories