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Premier League Week 5 Betting Preview: Back to the Drawing Board?

Sep 14, 2018 5:30 PM EDT
  • Premier League action returns after the international break with a marquee opener on Saturday morning between Tottenham and Liverpool (7:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports).
  • With 10 matches on the board for Saturday, Sunday and Monday, there are plenty of betting opportunities.
  • After analyzing the market and historical data, I've picked out three value plays to bet.

The international break always feels twice as long as it really is, and I know I’ve been eagerly waiting the return of the Premier League.

The marquee game of the weekend is early Saturday morning with Liverpool travelling to Wembley Stadium to take on Tottenham. Liverpool have conceded just one goal all season but their schedule gets tough, playing Tottenham, Chelsea and Manchester City over the next four league games.

Spurs won and drew against Liverpool last season, but without goalie Hugo Lloris and midfielder Dele Alli this weekend, odds have shifted away from the home side. Public bettors are expecting plenty of goals with more than 80% of tickets on the over (3).

Before getting into the rest of this weekend’s matches, let’s take a quick look at how the season has panned out so far.

2018-19 Season Trends

It’s been a solid start for the sportsbooks this season with all three-way moneyline results in the red. A big reason for that is the lack of big upsets so far, even with some surprise teams like Watford and Bournemouth.

Draws have been hard to come by but Week 5 may be a turning point as there are eight draws listed in the +250 odds range. On paper, most games on the board are expected to be competitive.

By analyzing the betting market and historical data, I’ve picked out three value plays for Premier League Week 5.

2018-19 Season Record: 5-11-1 (-3.15 units)


Crystal Palace at Huddersfield (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET, NBC Sports Gold)

  • Crystal Palace Odds: +147
  • Huddersfield Odds: +227
  • Draw Odds: +217
  • Over/Under: 2 (o-125)

The low over/under of 2 goals should have been a clear giveaway that this pick would be a draw, and it is. There are two historically profitable Bet Labs systems based on draws with low totals, and there’s no reason to stray from them in this match.

Crystal Palace could be boosted by the return of star Wilfried Zaha (groin injury), but he may not be 100% even if he starts. They still haven’t won an EPL match without him since 2016, a streak of eleven consecutive losses.

Both clubs will believe they can win this match and it’s a solid opportunity for each to pick up points. Public bettors have seemed to catch on to the draw but there’s still value at odds of +217.

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Credit:

Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images for Tottenham Hotspur FC. Pictured: Tottenham’s Harry Kane battling with Liverpool’s James Milner

Follow Dan McGuire on Twitter
@ArsenalDMC

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