RB Leipzig vs. Bayern Munich Odds, Picks, Prediction: Upset Brewing in Bundesliga Clash (Sept. 11)

RB Leipzig vs. Bayern Munich Odds, Picks, Prediction: Upset Brewing in Bundesliga Clash (Sept. 11) article feature image
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Max Maiwald/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Manager Jesse Marsch of RB Leipzig.

  • German powerhouses RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich square off Saturday in a huge Bundesliga fixture.
  • American Jesse Marsch manages the Red Bulls, who have played the Bavarians tight in their most recent contests.
  • Anthony Dabbundo gives his in-depth analysis below and explains why he's backing RB Leipzig to pull off the shocker.

RB Leipzig vs. Bayern Munich Odds

RB Leipzig Odds +225
Bayern Munich Odds +115
Draw +290
Over/Under 3.5 (+110 / -140)
Day | Time Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
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The Bundesliga’s best teams, according to mine and FiveThirtyEight’s SPI ratings, meet Saturday when Bayern Munich makes the trip to RB Leipzig for the most difficult fixture of its league campaign.

The Red Bulls mounted a decent title challenge to the Bavarians last season before suffering a 1-0 home defeat, which resulted in the nine-time defending Bundesliga champions pushing too far ahead of Leipzig.

Bayern Munich had a shaky opening match away from the Allianz Arena at Borussia Mönchengladbach to start its season, but has since looked like the club of old in its three consecutive wins against Köln, Borussia Dortmund and Hertha Berlin.

On the other side, Leipzig dropped games to Wolfsburg and Mainz to begin the reign of American manager Jesse Marsch, but they’re undervalued to shock the German champions in this home fixture. The Red Bulls’ ability to exploit the Bavarians’ questionable defense makes the visitors overvalued as solid road favorites.

Tough Wolfsburg Loss Doesn’t Tell All for RB Leipzig

Leipzig’s away loss at Wolfsburg was disappointing for multiple reasons in the Sunday before the international. It was a tight, cagey affair that featured a few big chances and not much else.

The Red Bulls missed their chances and the Wolves took their own, leading to the 1-0 win. That marked two losses in three matches for Marsch’s men, who also face Manchester City on Wednesday in Champions League action.

Leipzig’s underlying numbers are still excellent, though. They’re currently first in penalty area passes and shots allowed, as well as fourth in shots created. Leipzig also features the highest pressing success rate in the German top flight, which is a staple of the Marsch pressing system.

The Red Bulls have allowed the fewest opposition touches in their own final third as well, meaning it will be difficult for the Bavarians to enjoy long periods of sustained pressure on their goal.

Marsch has come close to knocking off Bayern in the past, as well as with his new club. They’ve drawn four of the last six meetings with Bayern and lost two, but the underlying metrics from 2020 suggest these sides aren’t as far apart in performance as the names on the team sheet and club prestige suggest.

Leipzig doesn’t have the firepower to hang with them over a 34-match season, but in one game, they’ve shown they can play close with the German champs.

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Bayern Munich Still Best German Side, Yet Vulnerable

Trying to fade the longtime German champions requires picking the right spots and matchups. On opening day against Gladbach, Bayern was quite vulnerable on the counterattack and to direct attacks. They conceded 2.0 xGA and should have lost that game. At home against Hertha Berlin, though, Bayern looked as dominant as ever with a 5-0 win and a 3.0-0.4edge in the xG battle.

Returning from the break, Bayern might have one eye on Tuesday’s Champions League tilt with Barcelona. The Bundesliga is important, but winning it is expected for Bayern. The Champions League performance is often how their season is judged and that match against Barcelona has a much bigger impact on their season, including their UCL group finishing place.

Andre Silva really exploited this Bayern defense in his time with Eintracht Frankfurt last year after the club’s defensive numbers across the board were significantly worse than 2019-20 when they won the Champions League.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Leipzig won the xG battle with Bayern in both games last season. The teams finished very close in xG difference and the hosts had one of the best defensive records in all of Europe’s top-five leagues last season. Bayern might roll over them like they do most of the Bundesliga, but this is as good a spot as ever to bet against Bayern with Barcelona at home looming three days later.

Marsch has experience facing off against Bayern because of his time in the UCL with Salzburg last year, and that club played nearly even with the German power on xG over the two legs. His style of pressing and direct attacking play can exploit weaknesses in this Bayern defense.

My projections make Bayern as a +165 moneyline favorite, so I’ll take a shot on Leipzig to win this meeting. They only need to win this game about 34-35% of the time to make +220 a worthy play, which is implied 31% odds. If you’re more risk averse, I also show value on Leipzig to get at least a draw at -145 or better, betting them +0.5 or double chance.

Pick: RB Leipzig ML (+200 or better)

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