We have reached the final matches of the exciting Euro 2020 quarterfinal round, which will lock up the last two nations for next week's semifinal showdowns.
The interesting schedule kicks off Saturday with Czech Republic taking on tournament darling Denmark in the opener, followed by powerful England facing off against upset-minded Ukraine.
Handicappers Jeremy Pond, Anthony Dabbundo, BJ Cunningham and Matthew Trebby dish out their best bets for these showdowns. Let's take a look at their top picks below and see what they think might be in store.
Saturday's Euro 2020 Best Bets
| ANALYST | PICK | ODDS | BEST BOOK |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Dabbundo | Denmark ML (+114) | DraftKings |
| Jeremy Pond | Czech Republic vs. Denmark: Both Teams To Score — Yes (+102) | DraftKings |
| BJ Cunningham | England -1.5 (+125) | DraftKings |
| Matthew Trebby | Parlay — England ML & Ukraine Under 0.5 Goals (+100) | DraftKings |
Odds as of Friday evening.
Jeremy Pond: Czech Republic vs. Denmark: Both Teams To Score — Yes (+102)
- Odds available at DraftKings
When it comes to destiny, I'm having a hard time finding another team left in the Euro 2020 field carrying that with it more than Denmark. There is something purely magically happening for the Danes, who enter their quarterfinal affair with the Czech Republic as +114 favorites.
After watching Christian Eriksen fight for his life in its opening match against Finland, to its knockout-round clinching win against Russia, Denmark has felt the admiration and full-blown love from the global soccer community. Now, the Danes are just a win from reaching the semifinal round and should be able to get the job done against Patrik Schick and the Czechs.
Yes, Denmark suffered a 1-0 loss to Finland on debut and was handed a 2-1 defeat against Belgium. However, the Danes dominated the xG battle in both setbacks. They finally reaped the benefits in the 4-1 rout of the Russians, finishing with a 2.1-1.1 xG edge. And with its 4-0 thrashing of Wales in the Round of 16 fixtures, Denmark wound up with a 2.0-0.7 xG advantage.
As I said, I firmly believe the Danes move on in this battle with the Czechs, but I don't think the underdogs are going to go down lightly. Schick has been fantastic for Czech Republic, scoring four of his country's five goals so far. The Czechs have only been shut out once, coming in a 1-0 defeat to England. And the Danes? They've allowed at least one goal in three of their matches.
That said, I'm finding plenty of value on both teams to score at +102 odds and will make it my top pick. I'd play this wager via any number at plus odds.
Anthony Dabbundo: Denmark ML (+114) vs. Czech Republic
- Odds available at DraftKings
Denmark has the fourth-best xG difference in the tournament, sitting behind Spain, Italy and the Netherlands. The Danes have the most attacking penalty area touches, second-most passes into the area and have completely overwhelmed opponents with their possession structures.
Denmark doesn't apply pressure that much because it has had possession so much, but it does have the third-highest successful pressure rate at the tournament. While they have relied on the actual goals coming from outside the box more than average, the Danes' average shot distance is in the top half of the field and their shots per match is second highest overall.
The Czech Republic is going to try to defend and counter, but it doesn't get high-quality shots compared to most teams that employ that strategy. The Czechs rank middle of the pack (worse than Denmark) in xG per shot as well.
Most teams who defend that way try to prevent a high xG per shot and are willing to sacrifice and allow low-quality shots. However, the Czech Republic has allowed the seventh-highest xG per shot. The Czechs defend in a low block and counter team, but allow a pretty high percentage of passes and crosses to be completed in their own area compared to the final third.
Overall, Czech Republic has the profile of a much weaker team than Denmark, Bottom line, the Czechs are overrated and their run ends in 90 minutes.
BJ Cunningham: England -1.5 (+125) vs. Ukraine
- Odds available at DraftKings
England still has not allowed a goal in the tournament, plus it has only let its opponents create a total of 3.06 expected goals through four matches.
Yes, England’s offense hasn’t been up to the level as we expected, but I’m still going to trust an offense that has this much talent and should be able to penetrate a really weak Ukraine defense that has conceded a total of 6.56 xG through their four games.
I came into the competition saying Ukraine was an overrated team. Needless to say, the Ukraines didn’t do anything to change my mind during the group stage. And guess what? After its contest against Sweden, Ukraine still hasn't changed my mind.
If you throw out their match against North Macedonia and the final 22 minutes against Sweden, where they had the man advantage, the Ukrainians have been out-created by a 5.09-1.90 xG margin. In fact, 1.10 of their 1.93 xG against Sweden came after the red card in the 98th minute.
Ukraine will probably come out in a low block, like it did early on against Sweden. So, I think this is a match where if Ukraine goes down early, it’s going to completely open the game up in my opinion.
I have England’s spread projected at -1.44, so I think there is some value on the Three Lions spread of -1.5 goals at anything +115 or better.
Matthew Trebby: Parlay — England ML & Ukraine Under 0.5 Goals (+100)
- Odds available at DraftKings
In the two major tournaments that manager Gareth Southgate has been in charge of England, his teams have placed a heavy focus on defense.
Southgate’s current team has a plethora of attacking talent that he’s relying on create enough chances to score at least one goal. Then, there’s great confidence that a clean sheet will be maintained.
England have yet to concede a goal in this event, outscoring its foes by a 4-0 margin through its first four games. That said, I don’t see any reason to believe Ukraine will change that trend.
While Ukraine is going to sit back and force England to come at it, Southgate’s men are coming off a sensational result against Germany. The Three Lions have shown they have the patience necessary to break down defenses like in this competition.
I would be very, very surprised if this game ends in any other way than an England clean sheet and victory in 90 minutes.
