FA Cup Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Bournemouth vs. Southampton (Saturday, March 20)
Naomi Baker/Getty Images. Dominic Solanke.
- A trip to Wembley is on the line in the FA Cup for this South Coast derby.
- Bournemouth have continued their flowing style of play in the Championship, while Southampton is struggling to get a positive result in the Premier League.
- Kieran Darcy breaks down why he's backing the underdog Cherries on Saturday morning.
Bournemouth vs. Southampton Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-110 / -115)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 8:15 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds as of Friday afternoon and via PointsBet.|
The first of four FA Cup quarterfinals this weekend features a team aiming to earn promotion back to the Premier League, hosting a team still trying to make sure it stays in the Premier League.
Here’s a closer look at Bournemouth and Southampton, followed by a pick.
Bournemouth are currently seventh in the Championship with 59 points, two points behind sixth-place Reading for the final playoff spot. They’re trying to make a quick-as-possible return to the top flight after being relegated last season.
It hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing. Manager Jason Tindall, who replaced Eddie Howe following that relegation, was sacked last month. Jonathan Woodgate is now in charge until the end of the season.
Bournemouth are coming off a 3-0 win over third-place Swansea City on Tuesday. They’d lost 3-2 to fifth-place Barnsley prior to that, but had picked up two wins and a draw from their previous three matches — including a 1-0 victory over second-place Watford.
In terms of goal difference, Bournemouth are currently fourth in the Championship at +18, behind only Norwich City (+29), Watford (+26) and Brentford (+26). They’ve scored 55 goals in 37 league matches, of which only Brentford have scored more (64).
Dominic Solanke and Arnaut Groeneveld are Bournemouth’s leading scorers, with 11 and 10 league goals, respectively. They won, 2-0, at Burnley to advance to the FA Cup quarterfinals.
Southampton are currently 14th in the Premier League with 33 points, seven points ahead of 18th-place Fulham entering Friday. Their chances of relegation are only 2% according to FiveThirtyEight, but the Saints certainly are not safe yet with nine league matches remaining.
They’re also in very poor form. Southampton are coming off back-to-back losses: 2-1 to Brighton last Sunday, which was preceded by a 5-2 defeat at Manchester City. Southampton have lost 10 of their past 12 league matches dating back to Jan. 16, and the only win came against last-place Sheffield United.
The underlying numbers tell a similar story. In fact, Southampton are 14th in terms of xG (expected goal) differential as well, at -9.0 according to FBRef.com. They’ve scored 36 goals in 29 league matches, well above their xG total of 29.4. But they’ve conceded 51 goals, nearly 13 more than their xG conceded total of 38.4. Only 19th-place West Brom (57) have conceded more goals than Southampton.
Southampton’s leading scorer is Danny Ings, who has eight goals in 22 league appearances but is out due to injury. Southampton won 2-0 at Wolves to advance to the quarters.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Bournemouth are the only non-Premier League team left in this competition, but most of their regulars have lots of Premier League experience.
The Cherries are currently playing in the second tier, yes, but they’re certainly in better form — including wins over two of the top three teams in the Championship in their past five matches.
Southampton’s only win in their past 12 league matches came against a team that will be playing in the Championship next season. And in the other 11 matches, they conceded 32 goals — nearly three per match.
The gap between these two clubs isn’t that big. Bournemouth to win at nearly 3-1 looks well worth a shot to me. Go Cherries!
Pick: Bournemouth (+280)