European Soccer Forecast: Projected Odds, Totals for Weekend Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A & More (March 19-22)

European Soccer Forecast: Projected Odds, Totals for Weekend Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A & More (March 19-22) article feature image
Credit:

Gerard Franc/Getty Images. Pictured: Lionel Messi of Barcelona.

This is the final round of domestic fixtures before European club football takes a pause for the international break. We have a shortened slate of Premier League action, but a full slate  in the other five major leagues. This past weekend featured several massive matches across every league. Here’s a snapshot of what we saw:

  • Arsenal defeated Tottenham 2-1 in the North London Derby, keeping the Gunners in the top half of the table.
  • RB Leipzig and Frankfurt drew 1-1 in a top-four Bundesliga clash, which extends Bayern Munich’s lead at the top to four points.
  • Napoli defeated AC Milan 1-0 on the road, which extended Inter Milan’s lead at the the top of the Serie A table to nine points with only 11 matches left to play.
  • Atletico Madrid was held to a 0-0 draw at Getafe, which allowed both Barcelona and Real Madrid to close the gap by two more points.
  • PSG was upset by Nantes 2-1 at home, which now leaves them three points behind Lille in the title race.

With how busy the European soccer calendar is at the moment, managers might be rotating their squads to rest some players. Therefore, it might be a good idea to wait to place a wager until starting lineups come out prior to kickoff.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make throughout the week.

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Premier League

Premier League Notes

  • West Ham vs. Arsenal: The Hammers are on the cusp of the top four and would be tied on points with Chelsea if they take all three points against Arsenal Sunday in the London Derby. It’s been a dream season for West Ham who are the highest they’ve been in the table at this point in the season in over two decades. However, they’ve had a lot of struggles with Arsenal over the years, as the Gunners are 15-2-2 against West Ham in the Premier League since 2010. Arsenal has an outside shot at qualifying for the Europa League, so they need all three points from this match.

Premier League Injury News

  • Arsenal: Bukayo Saka (LM) and Willian (RW) are questionable to play against West Ham.
  • Aston Villa: Jack Grealish (LM) and Bertrand Traore (RM) are questionable to play against Newcastle.
  • Brighton: Tariq Lamptey (RB), Solly March (LB) and Adam Webster (CB) are out against Southampton.
  • Fulham: Tom Cairney (CAM) is out against Leeds.
  • Leeds: Liam Cooper (CB) is out against Fulham.
  • Leicester: James Justin (LB), Harvey Barnes (LM), James Maddison (CAM) and Johnny Evans (CB),  Dennis Praet (CAM) are out against Brighton. Ayoze Perez (RM) is questionable. 
  • Newcastle:  Miguel Almiron (CAM), Allan Saint-Maximin (ST), Fabian Schär (CB) and Callum Wilson (ST) are out against Brighton.
  • Tottenham: Erik Lamela (RM) and Heung-Min Son (LM) are out against Aston Villa.
  • West Ham: Arthur Masuaku (LB) and Angelo Ogbonna (CB) are out against Tottenham.

Bundesliga

Bundesliga Injury News

  • Arminia Bielefeld: Reinhold Yabo (LM) and Jacob Barrett Laursen (LB) are out against RB Leipzig.
  • Augsburg: Iago (LWB) is questionable to play against Freiburg. Mads Pedersen (LB) is out.
  • Bayer Leverkusen: Lars Bender (CDM), Daley Sinkgraven (LB), and Sven Bender (CB) are out against Hertha Berlin.
  • Bayern Munich: Douglas Costa (CAM) is out against Vfb Stuttgart.
  • Borussia Dortmund: Marco Reus (LM), Mats Hummels (CB), Jadon Sancho (RM) and Axel Witsel (CM) are out against Koln. Manuel Akanji (CB) and Raphael Guerreiro (CAM) are questionable.
  • Frankfurt: Amin Younes (CAM), Tuta (CB), Eric Drum (RM), and Daichi Kamada (CAM) are out against Union Berlin.
  • Hertha Berlin: Dedryck Boyata (CB) is questionable to play against Dortmund. Vladimir Darida (CM) is out.
  • Hoffenheim: Stefan Posch (CB) and Kevin Akpoguma (CB) are questionable to play against Mainz. Mijat Gacinovic (RB) is out.
  • Koln:  Sebastian Bornauw (CB) and Jannes-Kilian Horn (LB) are out against Dortmund. Florian Kainz (RM) is questionable. 
  • RB Leipzig: Angelino (LB) is questionable to play against Arminia Bielefeld. Dayot Upamecano (CB) is out.
  • Schalke: Matija Nastasic (CB) and Mark Uth (CAM) are out against Gladbach.
  • Union Berlin: Christopher Lenz (LB) and Taiwo Awoniyi (ST) are questionable to play against Frankfurt.
  • Vfb Stuttgart: Nicolas Gonzalez (ST) is questionable to play against Bayern Munich. Orel Mangala (CM) is out.
  • Wolfsburg: Renato Steffen (LM) and Paulo Otavio (LB) are out against Werder Bremen.

Serie A

Serie A Notes

  • Roma vs. Napoli: Both teams are on the outside looking in at the top four and are in desperate need of all three points. Roma has done all of their damage versus the bottom of the table and has really struggled versus the top teams in Italy, going 0-5-4 against the top eight teams in Serie A. Napoli has been struggling on the road as of late, as their win over AC Milan last weekend was their first win away from home in their last five tries. Napoli destroyed Roma 4-0 back in November so the home side will be out for some revenge.

Serie A Injury News

  • AC Milan: Mario Mandzukic (ST) is questionable to play against Fiorentina. Ante Rebic (LM) is out.
  • Atalanta: Robin Gosens (LWB) is out against Verona.
  • Benevento: Kamil Gilk (CB), Gaetano Letizia (RB) and Fabio Depaoli (RB) are out against Juventus.
  • Cagliari: Ragnar Klavan (CB) is out against Spezia.
  • Crotone: Sebastiano Luperto (CB) is questionable to play against Bologna.
  • Fiorentina: Sofyan Amrabat (CM) is questionable to play against AC Milan. Cristiano Biraghi (LB) is out.
  • Genoa: Andrea Masiello (CB) and Mattia Destro (ST) are out against Udinese. Mattia Perin (GK) is questionable.
  • Inter: Arturo Vidal (CM) is out against Sassuolo. Stefan de Vrij (CB) and Samir Handanovic (GK) are questionable.
  • Juventus: Paulo Dybala (CF), Alex Sandro (LB), and Rodrigo Bentancur (CM) are questionable to play against Benevento. Juan Cuadrado (RB), Weston McKennie (CM), Aaron Ramsey (CAM), and Gianluigi Buffon (GK) are out.
  • Lazio: Manuel Lazzari (RM) and  Luiz Felipe (CB)  are out against Udinese.
  • Parma: Gervinho (ST) and Simone Iacoponi (CB) are out against Genoa. Riccardo Gagliolo (CB) is questionable.
  • Roma: Chris Smalling (CB), Henrikh Mkhitaryan (CAM), and Jordan Veretout (CM) are out against Napoli.
  • Sampdoria: Gaston Ramirez (CAM) is out against Torino.
  • Torino: Nicolas N’Koulou (CB) is questionable to play against Sampdoria.
  • Udinese: Ignacio Pussetto (ST) is questionable to play against Lazio.

La Liga

La Liga Notes

  • Real Sociedad vs. Barcelona: Barcelona has made up a ton of ground in the La Liga title race and are now only four points behind Atletico with 11 matches to go. Real Sociedad’s hopes for finishing inside the top four are hanging by a thread, as they’re in fifth place, but nine points behind Sevilla. Both teams are desperate for all three points. Barcelona has won 11 of their last 12 matches in La Liga and defeated Real Sociedad 2-1 back in December.

La Liga Injury News

  • Alaves: Tomas Pina (CM) is out against Atletico Madrid.
  • Athletic Bilbao: Inigo Martinez (CB) and Ander Capa (RB) are out against Eibar.
  • Atletico Madrid: Joao Felix (ST) is out against Alaves.
  • Barcelona: Gerard Pique (CB) and Ansu Fati (LW) are out against Real Sociedad. Philippe Coutinho (CAM) and Sergi Roberto (RB) are questionable. 
  • Cadiz: Carlos Akapo (RB) is questionable to play against Villarreal. Anthony Lazano (ST) is out. 
  • Celta Vigo: Hugo Mallo (RB) and Ruben Blanco (GK) are out against Real Madrid.
  • Eibar: Pedro Bigas (CM) is questionable to play against Athletic Bilbao.
  • Elche: Emiliano Rigoni (LM) is out against Getafe.
  • Getafe: Damian Suarez (RB), Allan Nyom (RM), and Jaime Mata (ST) are out against Elche.
  • Granada: Dimitri Foulquier (RB) is out against Valencia.
  • Levante: Gonzalo Melero (CM) and Sergio Postigo (CB) are questionable to play against Real Betis.
  • Real Madrid: Daniel Carvajal (RB) is questionable to play against Celta Vigo. Eden Hazard (LW) is out.
  • Valencia: Eliaquim Mangala (CB) is out against Granada.
  • Villarreal: Etienne Capoue is out against Cadiz.

Ligue 1

Ligue 1 Notes

  • Lyon vs. PSG: Both clubs trail Lille by three points for top spot in the league, so the loser of this match will effectively be out of the title race. Lyon have had a resurgent season, but have been on a bad run of form the past few weeks, as they only have two wins in their last five matches. PSG rebounded from their horrific 2-1 upset at the hands of Nantes at home last Sunday by beating Lens in the French Cup on Wednesday. Lyon handed PSG a 1-0 defeat back in December, so the defending champions will be out for revenge on Sunday.

Ligue 1 Injury News

  • Angers: Rachid Alioui (CM) is questionable to play against Brest.
  • Bordeaux: Hatem Ben Arfa (CAM) and Otávio (CDM) are out against Montpellier.
  • Brest: Christophe Herelle (CB) and Franck Honorat (RM) are questionable to play against Angers.
  • Lens: Ignatius Ganago (ST) is out against Strasbourg.
  • Lorient: Jeremy Morel (CB) and Jonathan Delaplace (RB) are out against Nantes.
  • Marseille: Jordan Amarvi (LB) and Valentin Rongier (CM) are questionable to play against Brest. Boubacar Kamara (CM) is out.
  • Metz: Opa Nguette (LW) is questionable to play against Lens. Alexandre Oukidja (GK) is out.
  • Monaco: Gelson Martins (RM) is questionable to play against Saint-Etienne.
  • Nantes: Sebastien Corchia (RB) is out against Lorient
  • Nimes: Anthony Briancon (CB) is out against Lille.
  • PSG: Neymar (CF) is questionable to play against Lyon.
  • Reims: Moreto Cassama (CM) is out against Lyon.
  • Rennes: Jonas Martin (CM) is questionable to play against Metz.
  • Saint Etienne: Romain Hamouma (ST) is questionable to play against Monaco.
  • Strasbourg: Alexander Djiku (CB) and Mohamed Simakan (CB) are out against Lens.

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