Premier League Betting Odds & Pick: Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Wolves (Saturday, January 2)
Kirsty Wigglesworth – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Brighton & Hove Albion standout Neal Maupay, right, battles for the ball during a game against West Ham United.
- Two teams with good defensive metrics will meet in the Premier League on Saturday afternoon when Brighton head to The Black Country to take on Wolverhampton.
- Jeremy Pond explains why you should trust these two sides to keep this game tight.
Brighton vs. Wolves Odds
|Brighton Odds||+160 [BET NOW]|
|Wolves Odds||+200 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+205 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||1.5 (-182/+145) [BET NOW]|
|Time||Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBCSN | fuboTV|
Teams that pride themselves on being top defensive outfits go at it Saturday when Brighton & Hove Albion hosts Wolves in a key Premier League match.
Both sides, who are coming off respective 1-0 shutout defeats, have been in terrible form as of late. Combined, Brighton and Wolves have posted a 1-4-5 record (W-D-L) over their last 10 games in England’s top flight.
The host Seagulls, who are winless at home this season, find themselves sitting in 17th place in the standings on 13 points and just two points from the relegation zone.
In contrast, Wolves have fared slightly better and find themselves in 12th place with 21 points. The club was in much better form early on, which has allowed them to not dip too far down the table during its recent run of mediocre play.
Let’s take a look at what could be on deck with these sides in this meeting.
Things have continued to go south for the Seagulls, who are now a loss combined with a Fulham win away from landing in the drop zone.
After three consecutive draws, Brighton suffered a 1-0 setback against Arsenal in its most recent match. It was just the latest example of another hard-luck result for the Seagulls, whose record is not indicative of their talent and overall skill.
If you look at Brighton’s overall numbers and didn’t know where it sat in the standings, you’d likely think it was surely among the top 10 clubs in the league. Needless to say, they’re not stats of a club perched right above the drop zone.
The Seagulls sit on a 21.9 expected goals versus a stellar 16.6 expected goals against, resulting in an impressive +5.3 xGDiff and +0.33 xGDiff/90 minutes. Brighton’s numbers are so good that it ranks sixth overall in xGDiff and xGDiff/90 minutes among the league’s 20 teams.
Manager Nuno Espírito Santo and his team have hit a rough patch, going winless in five of their last six fixtures. They did wind up bagging all three points in a 2-1 win over Chelsea during that stretch of poor performances.
However, that victory over the Blues at Molineux Stadium is really the lone bright spot on Wolves’ recent résumé.
When comparing the advanced metrics with Brighton, Wolves trails its foe in all four major statistical categories. The club has subpar 15.1 expected goals and pretty solid 18.7 expected goals against, resulting in a -3.6 xGDiff and -0.23 for xGDiff/90 minutes.
Obviously, Wolves’ struggle to find the back of the net have been well documented. The side has a paltry 15 goals scored this season, with Pedro Neto and Raúl Jiménez (now sidelined) leading the way with four goals each.
Yet, Wolves has performed more than admirably with that stellar xGA figure. It has actually performed better than Liverpool, Manchester United, Leicester City and Everton. Yes, those clubs all sit top four on the table.
Betting Analysis & Picks
This showdown really has the makings of being a defensive battle, featuring very few quality scoring opportunities for either side. Neither has been able to generate much offensively, which should lead to a low-scoring affair as well.
That said, I am backing the total to stay under the alternative number of 2.25 goals in this spot. There have been less than three goals in 10 of Brighton’s last 11 matches against Wolves across all competitions, which has me confident.
Giving me even more optimism is the fact there have been less three goals scored in the Seagulls’ last six tilts at American Express Community Stadium.
I will also sprinkle a little on both teams not scoring in the contest. Brighton has shut out Wolves in five of their last six confrontations, so I am forecasting this trend to continue in this all-important meeting.
Picks: Total Under 2.25 Goals (-136) | Both Teams To Score — No (-134)