Leeds United (5-8-5) and Liverpool (10-6-2) will face off today at 12:30 p.m. EST at Anfield in Liverpool, England.
This game features two clubs in excellent form, as a title-contending Liverpool hosts a newly promoted Leeds side that has proven difficult to defeat in recent weeks.
Let's get into my Leeds vs. Liverpool prediction.
Leeds vs. Liverpool Prediction
Picks: Liverpool to Win and Both Teams to Score
My Leeds vs. Liverpool best bet is for the home team to secure the victory, but for Leeds to also find the back of the net.
Leeds vs. Liverpool Odds
| Leeds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
2.5 -163o / 130u | +475 | |
| Liverpool Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
2.5 -163o / 130u | -188 | |
Leeds vs. Liverpool Picks, Parlay
Picks: Liverpool to Win and Both Teams to Score
While Liverpool has found a way to grind out results, the team still struggles with defensive consistency. The Reds score an average of 1.7 goals per contest this season, but they also concede 1.4 goals per match. This defensive vulnerability creates an opportunity for bettors.
A recent home game against a low-scoring Wolves team provides a perfect example. Liverpool secured the win, but still allowed a goal. Wolves, a team with only 10 goals on the season, managed to generate 1.07 expected goals (xG), which highlights the ongoing instability in Liverpool's back line.
Leeds presents a far greater offensive threat than Wolves. The club has a well-known strategy to break down the Liverpool defense and should create plenty of chances to score.
Daniel Farke’s team has produced over 1.5 xG in its last seven Premier League matches and has scored a goal in eight consecutive games. At the same time, Liverpool has managed just one shutout in its previous five league appearances.
The offensive firepower of Leeds, combined with Liverpool’s defensive issues, strongly supports the "Both Teams to Score" portion of this pick.
The first meeting between these clubs this season ended in a 3-3 draw, which further demonstrates that Leeds can score multiple goals against this opponent. Despite the defensive questions, Liverpool’s talent and need for three points in the title race should ultimately carry them to a win at home.
Leeds vs. Liverpool Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Leeds | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| 19.3% | 21.6% | 59.1% |
Projected Total Goals
| Leeds | Total Goals | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| 0.99 | 2.88 | 1.88 |
Leeds vs. Liverpool Betting Analysis
This matchup features two teams that enter in top condition. Liverpool is on a seven-game unbeaten streak and knows every point is crucial for its championship ambitions. Meanwhile, Leeds has performed admirably for a recently promoted club and is unbeaten in its last five contests.
The form of both sides suggests this game will be more competitive than the moneyline odds indicate.
History between these two clubs points toward a high-scoring affair. Over 2.5 goals have hit in six of the last seven meetings, with those games producing an average of 4.85 goals. That trend aligns with our analysis of Liverpool's defensive problems and Leeds' potent attack.
However, a key factor that supports a Liverpool victory is Leeds’ poor performance on the road. Just five of the team's 20 Premier League points this season have come from away games.
This difficulty away from home, combined with Liverpool's need to keep pace in the title race, makes a home win the most probable outcome, even if a shutout appears unlikely. Liverpool has scored 30 goals this season but has also conceded 26, a defensive record that is worse than any of its previous nine campaigns at this stage.
That combination of high-powered offense and a porous defense makes for an exciting betting landscape.
Check out the best soccer odds before you make your Leeds vs Liverpool picks.
