Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea EPL Betting Odds, Pick, Preview: Fade Overachieving Palace (April 10)
Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Timo Werner
- Chelsea might have lost its last Premier League match to lowly West Bromwich Albion last time out, but it's still odds-on favorite to get three points against Crystal Palace in Saturday's Premier League affair.
- Kieran Darcy details why he thinks the best value is backing the Blues to get the job done by more than a goal against the Eagles.
Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea Odds
|Crystal Palace Odds||+600|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+110 / -136)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Friday afternoon via DraftKings.|
The third of three Premier League matches on Saturday features two London clubs in very different positions in the table, with an even bigger contrast in terms of their underlying numbers.
Here’s a closer look at Crystal Palace and Chelsea, followed by a prediction.
Crystal Palace are currently in 12th place with 38 points — 12 points above 18th-place Fulham, and with a game in hand. Their safety is all but officially secured. We’ll be seeing them in the top flight again next season.
In terms of xG (expected goal) differential, however, Palace deserve to be relegated. They’ve been the third-worst team in the league this season by that metric, according to FBRef, at -21.3 — behind only West Brom (-27.9) and Sheffield United (-23.2), two teams who will almost certainly be relegated.
How have Crystal Palace survived? Well, for one thing they’ve scored 32 goals in 30 matches — nearly eight more than their xG total of 24.1.
They were fortunate to pull out a 1-1 draw at Everton in their most recent match, on Monday — Everton dominated Crystal Palace in terms of xG, 2.7 to 0.8. But Palace have suffered only one defeat in their past six matches, a 4-1 pounding by Tottenham Hotspur on March 7. They also posted wins over Brighton (2-1) and West Brom (1-0), and draws with Fulham and Manchester United (both scoreless), during that stretch.
Chelsea are currently in fifth place with 51 points, one point behind fourth-place West Ham in the race for the final automatic Champions League spot next season.
In terms of xG differential, however, Chelsea are the second-strongest team in the league at +22.1, behind only league leaders Manchester City (+36.4).
Chelsea suffered a shocking 5-2 defeat at home to 19th-place West Brom last Saturday. But all five West Brom goals came after Thiago Silva’s 29th-minute red card. Also, Chelsea still outshot West Brom 18-14 despite playing a man down for two-thirds of the game, and still topped them in terms of xG, 2.4 to 1.9.
What’s more, that was Chelsea’s first loss under Thomas Tuchel, after going unbeaten in his first 14 matches in charge (10 wins, four draws). They had conceded just two goals in those 14 matches, and bounced back from the West Brom defeat to win 2-0 at Porto in their Champions League quarterfinal first leg on Wednesday.
Betting Analysis & Pick
That scoreline on Wednesday was a little flattering — Porto outshot Chelsea 13-6, although Chelsea were still better in terms of xG , 1.5 to 1.0.
A bigger concern is that Chelsea have now failed to score more than two goals in any of their first 16 matches under Tuchel.
I want to pick Chelsea -1.5, because I think they should win by more than one goal. But I’m going to play it a little more conservatively, given Chelsea’s scoring record under Tuchel and Crystal Palace’s overachievement in the goals scored column so far this season.
Pick: Chelsea -1 (-107)
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