Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Leeds United vs. Crystal Palace (Saturday, Nov. 7)
Plumb Images/Leicester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Leicester City star Jamie Vardy, left, and Leeds United’s Jack Harrison.
- Two teams in the middle of the Premier League table meet Saturday, with Crystal Palace hosting Leeds at Selhurst Park.
- This could be one of the better matches of the weekend, with the sides evenly matched in terms of xGA data.
- Jeremy Pond previews the showdown and gives his betting analysis below.
Crystal Palace vs. Leeds Odds
|Crystal Palace Odds||+188 [BET NOW]|
|Leeds Odds||+148 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+240 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-113/-110) [BET NOW]|
|Time||10 a.m. ET|
Teams sitting smack-dab in the middle of the Premier League table go at it Saturday when Crystal Palace hosts Leeds United at Selhurst Park.
Both clubs enter this fixture with identical 3-1-3 records through seven league matches, with the visiting Peacocks holding the tiebreaker against the Eagles for 10th place on the table.
Things didn’t go well for either team in last week’s fixtures. Crystal Palace suffered a tough 2-0 shutout loss against Wolves, which came after its 2-1 victory against Fulham the week prior.
On the other side, Leeds was soundly beaten in its 4-1 defeat to Leicester City. The setback continued the Peacocks’ exciting, yet rollercoaster return to England’s top flight and they’ll be looking for a better showing in this spot.
What that said, let’s take a look at these sides heading into what should be an interesting contest.
The Eagles will be looking to get back in a positive state of mind after last week’s subpar road showing against Wolves at Molineux Stadium.
Crystal Palace’s stagnant offense couldn’t generate much in that defeat, only mustering 0.6 xG in defeat. The club wound up with 11 shots in the game, but only two were on frame and neither led to solid scoring chances.
Striker Wilfried Zaha continues to lead the line for the offensively challenged Eagles, recording a team-high five of their eight goals in league play.
When looking at the statistical data, Crystal Palace has racked up some pretty weak numbers. The Eagles sit on mediocre 6.8 expected goals and brutal 10.1 expected goals against, resulting in a -3.3 xGDiff and -0.47 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Crystal Palace’s xGDiff is second-worst out of 20 teams in the league, only trailing relegation-zone side West Bromwich Albion. Its xGA is good for a spot in the bottom five on the table as well.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
The Peacocks enter this meeting on a short turnaround following Monday’s disheartening effort against Leicester City at Elland Road.
Leeds has to be frustrated with itself, knowing it missed an opportunity to move up the table and continuing to prove it’s not just another newly promoted team hoping to survive in its first season back at the top.
The Peacocks finished with a paltry 1.0 xG in the loss, but what was even worse was the 3.5 xG it allowed the Foxes in their four-goal outburst.
Patrick Bamford (six goals) and Jack Harrison have been a few of the bright spots on the Leeds’ offensive attack, which should be able to put together its fair share of scoring chances against Crystal Palace.
When comparing data, Leeds is better than Crystal Palace in all but one area. The Peacocks boast an impressive 11.7 expected goals, which is good enough for a spot among the top five in the category. However, its defense is as bad as its offense is good, carrying a league-worst 13.4 expected goals against.
Those wild numbers generate a -1.7 xGDiff and -0.25 for xGDiff/90 minutes, which are essentially middle of the pack in the league rankings.
Honestly, this might be one of the better matches of the weekend. You have two relatively equal sides facing off, both of whom feature strikers (Bamford, Zaha) that can create a whole lot out of nothing for their respective offenses.
You can also throw in the fact you have the two worst teams in the league when it comes to xGA battling each other, which has me confident we’re going to see some goals in this showdown.
With that in mind, I am backing the total to go over the number and both teams to score. Defense has never been the strongest suit for either club, which should be a trend that continues here at Selhurst Park.
Picks: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-103) | Both Teams To Score — Yes (-136)