Saturday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Liverpool vs. Newcastle United (April 24)
Nick Taylor/Liverpool FC/Liverpool FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Andy Robertson
Liverpool vs. Newcastle Odds
|Over/Under||3 (-115 / -104)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated Friday afternoon via DraftKings.|
After a poor run of form in the winter, Liverpool have started to right the ship with three wins in their last four matches. The Reds find themselves two points behind Chelsea and West Ham for the fourth and final Champions League spot. West Ham and Chelsea play one another on Saturday, so a showdown with 15th-place Newcastle is a prime opportunity for Liverpool to get back into the top four.
The Magpies are sitting eight points above the drop zone and have recently hit a good stretch of form, winning two straight matches, including a 3-2 win over West Ham last weekend. Newcastle is finally starting to get healthy on offense, with Allan Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson returning to the lineup.
Are Steve Bruce’s Magpies a live underdog on Saturday?
Liverpool’s defense was picked apart in a 1-1 draw against Leeds United on Monday. The Peacocks created six big chances against the Reds and had they been more clinical, they would have likely pulled off the upset (map via Infogol).
Liverpool also have looked a bit out of sorts going forward. Jürgen Klopp’s men have created 1.49 xG per match since the beginning of February, which is step down compared to last season when the Reds averaged 1.98 xGF per contest.
The Reds also have a major tactical problem at the moment. Usually, Klopp plays an all-out, high press that gives teams fits. Liverpool’s high line at the back also keeps opponents from playing long balls up the field, which means that the opposition typically spends less time with the ball as they try to string together quick passes. However, Liverpool’s top three centerbacks are out for the rest of the season, so the Reds have been forced to back off Klopp’s patented high press so their fill-in defenders aren’t exposed.
With Newcastle finally getting some of their attackers healthy, they could take advantage of Liverpool’s weakness in the center of the defense.
The Magpies are showing signs of life as they try to secure their survival for next season. They are also getting some of their key attackers healthy, as Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin will hopefully finally be on the field together for the first time in more than a month. That will be huge for Newcastle since the pair combines to create 0.69 xG per 90 minutes.
Newcastle’s offense has sparked into high gear over their last three matches, generating 8.10 xG in that span. That is more than they created in their previous seven matches, so things are starting to trend upward offensively for the club.
While the offense is ticking up, Newcastle’s defense has been dreadful all season. The Magpies rank 17th in the Premier League with an average of 1.54 xGA per match. They have particularly struggled against stronger opposition as Newcastle has allowed 23.03 xG in 11 matches against the top seven clubs in the Premier League this season.
Liverpool vs. Newcastle Best Bet
I think this improved — and healthy — Newcastle side can give Liverpool’s struggling defense some issues. Liverpool’s tactical dilemma has only gotten worse as the season has gone on and I don’t think their offense will be able to outscore those issues in this match. Thus, I think there’s some value backing Newcastle +1.5 at +123 on Saturday.
Pick: Newcastle +1.5 (+123)