Serie A Picks & Betting Odds: Bologna vs. Cagliari Preview (Wednesday, July 1)

Credit:

Chris Ricco/Getty Images. Pictured: Riccardo Orsolini of Bologna FC.

Bologna vs. Cagliari Odds, Pick

Bolonga odds +106 [BET NOW]
Cagliari odds +255 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +250 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-117/-106)
[BET NOW]
Time Wednesday at 1:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN

Odds as of Tuesday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


A battle of the middle of the table takes place in Serie A’s featured game Wednesday as Bologna hosts Cagliari. Both teams secured big wins over the weekend, but realistically do not have much to play for in this game. Bologna and Cagliari have an outside shot at a Europa League spot, but it will take an incredible run to end the season to achieve European football next season.

Bologna

I Rossoblù is one of the more underrated teams in Serie A. Based on expected points, Bologna should be seven points higher in the table than they currently are (37 actual vs. 44.13 xPoints). They’ve been incredibly unlucky both offensively and defensively to this point in the season:

Goals For Goals Against
Actual 40 45
Expected 47.32 37.72

Recently, Bologna has been in a bad run of form at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara winning only once in their past six matches. Those results are a little deceiving, as they’ve been the better side in half of those matches, winning the expected goals battle in three out of six matches.

Bologna typically play out of very popular a 4-2-3-1 formation, which provides teams with multiple attacking options and encourages creativity from their attacking players. I Rossoblù’s front three of Riccardo Orsolini, Rodrigo Palacio, and Nicola Sansone have benefited from playing in this formation as they average 1.00 expected goals and 0.73 expected assists this season.

Cagliari

Cagliari is starting to find their form, winning two of their past three games since Serie A returned. However, before their past two wins, Isolani was in a dreadful run of form without a win in 11 matches. They’ve also are fortunate to be as high in the table as they are at this point in the season.

Based on expected points, Cagliari should be six spots lower in the table than where they currently sit. They’ve been very fortunate offensively, scoring 12.83 more goals than expected so far this season (47 actual vs. 34.17 xG).


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Life on the road has been a challenge for Cagliari as of late, with only one win in their last nine matches. They’ve been outplayed in those matches, losing the expected goals battle 15.50 to 10.99. I think going up against one of the more underrated teams in Serie A could cause Cagliari a lot of problems.

Analysis

Bologna is due for some positive regression, while Cagliari good fortune is due to run out at some point. Based on my model, I think Bologna is severely undervalued in this match:

  • Bologna projected odds: -161 (61.62% win probability)
  • Cagliari projected odds: +501 (16.63% win probability)
  • Draw projected odds: +360 (21.75% win probability)
  • Bologna projected xG: 1.92
  • Cagliari projected xG: 0.92

Based on those numbers, I am going to back an underrated Bologna squad to get all three points at home.

Pick: Bologna +106
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