La Liga Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sevilla vs. Atlético Madrid (Sunday, April 4)
David S. Bustamante/Soccrates/Getty Images. Pictured: Luis Suarez of Atletico Madrid, Ivan Rakitic of Sevilla FC.
- The final La Liga match on Sunday pits two of the league's top-four squads against each another.
- Both teams feature stellar defenses, so backing an under play is too expensive in this spot.
- Kieran Darcy breaks down the match and gives his top pick below.
Sevilla vs. Atlético Madrid Odds
|Atlético Madrid Odds||+165|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+163 / -210)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 3 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Sunday morning via DraftKings.|
The last of four La Liga matches Sunday is one of the biggest games of the weekend across Europe, featuring a top-four clash between fourth-place Sevilla and league-leading Atlético Madrid.
Here’s a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a prediction.
Sevilla has taken 55 points from its first 28 league matches. They entered the weekend five points below third-place Real Madrid; seven points behind Barcelona; and, 11 points below their latest opponent.
Perhaps more importantly, Sevillistas Rojiblancos were also 10 points above fifth-place Real Sociedad, meaning Sevilla has a very good chance of earning that fourth and final automatic Champions League spot for next season.
However, there’s still work to do. Sevilla’s chances of finishing in the top four currently sit at 80 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Sevilla is coming off a disappointing 1-1 draw at 16th-place Real Valladolid in their most recent match. Prior to that, Sevillistas Rojiblancos beat 17th-place Elche (2-0) and sixth-place Real Betis (1-0) on home soil.
Those clean sheets weren’t a big surprise, given Sevilla has conceded just 21 goals in 28 league matches — only one team has given up fewer (see below). However, Sevilla has scored only 39 goals — or 1.4 per match — this season.
In terms of the underlying numbers, Sevilla would be a little lower in the table — sixth with an expected-goal differential (xGDiff) of +10.1, according to FBRef.
As previously mentioned, Atlético Madrid entered the weekend with an 11-point lead over Sevilla. And yet, Los Rojiblancos has just a 28% chance of winning the league, according to FiveThirtyEight, which is well below front-runner Barcelona at 61 percent.
Why is that? Well for starters, Atlético Madrid’s form has dipped the past two months. Since the start of February, it has won only four of its nine league matches. It has also only lost once — the other four games finished as draws — but that has been enough to let the other clubs back in the race.
Also, there’s a stark difference in terms of the underlying numbers. Barcelona have the best xGDiff (+30.5) in the league by far. In contrast, Atlético Madrid is down in fifth place with a +12.9 xGDiff, which is just ahead of Sevilla.
Atlético Madrid has conceded even fewer goals than Sevilla, with 18 coming against it in 28 matches. Offensively, they’ve scored 51 goals, which is 12 more than Sevilla.
However, Los Rojiblancos are coming off a couple pretty poor performances. Their last match before the international break was a 1-0 win over last-place Alaves, where they had just eight shots. That fixture was preceded by a scoreless draw with 14th-place Getafe.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Atlético Madrid earned a 2-0 win over Sevilla back on Jan. 12, but the stats from that game tell a different story. Sevilla outshot Atlético Madrid by a 13-5 margin that day, plus it held a 1.7-0.4 xG advantage.
Both teams have had tough stretches in recent weeks, including being eliminated in the Round of 16 of Champions League action. These outfits are relatively even in terms of xGDiff, and they’re the top two defensive teams in Spain’s top flight.
That said, I forecast this to be a low-scoring game battle, but you’ll pay a big price to get the total at under 2.5. For that reason, I’ll go for the draw instead.
Pick: Draw (+205)