Ligue 1 Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Lyon vs. Paris Saint-Germain (Sunday, March 21)
Franck Fife/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Paris Saint-Germain star Kylian Mbappé.
- French juggernauts Lyon and Paris Saint-Germain square off Sunday in a huge Ligue 1 match.
- These sides trail Lille by three points in the standings in France's first division.
- Jeremy Pond breaks down the match and explains why he finds value in a draw below.
Lyon vs. PSG Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-186 / +148)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 4 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.|
If you’re seeking for a nice way to cap your weekend of soccer, look no further than the barnburner that’s scheduled to take place Sunday in France.
Ligue 1 powerhouses Lyon and Paris Saint-Germain square off at Groupama Stadium, with so much at stake in the race for the championship. Les Gones and the Parisians are tied for second place in the French top flight with 60 points and trail league-leader Lille by three points.
Lyon has been on absolute fire during its magical season, going unbeaten in 25 of its last 27 contests across all competitions. However, Les Gones struggled to a midweek 1-1 road draw against 13th-place Reims last Saturday.
On the other side, PSG continues to shine on the domestic and international fronts. The Parisians, who recently eliminated Barcelona in the Champions League action to book its spot in the quarterfinal round, just delivered a crushing 3-0 loss to Lille in Coupe de France play.
You have to respect what Les Gones have done so far this campaign. They’re firing on all cylinders, upsetting the apple cart (along with Lille) when it comes to the way things usually go in France’s first division.
Lyon has gone unbeaten in its last five games following its 2-1 loss at the hands of Montpellier on Dec. 13 at Groupama Stadium. Since that defeat, Les Gones have averaged more than two goals per contest en route to a 3-0-2 (W-L-D) record during that span.
Memphis Depay leads the line for Lyon, putting him in the thick of the league’s Golden Boot race with 14 goals. Goalkeeper Anthony Lopes continues to hold down the defensive fort for a club that’s conceded less than a goal per game (26 goals in 29 matches) this season.
Statistically, Lyon is the best in the league when it comes to the advanced metrics. Les Gones sit on an unreal 65.1 expected goals and 30.4 xGA, resulting in a sizzling +34.7 xGDiff and +1.20 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Manager Mauricio Pochettino and the Parisians have to be disappointed when it comes to where they stand on the domestic front. They’re used to being atop the table, usually well ahead of the rest of their French counterparts.
However, that’s not the case this season, and PSG is going to have to work harder for another league crown. Helping matters entering this meeting with Lyon is the fact PSG has won its last three road league matches, so I’m sure there’s plenty of optimism as the club hopes to avenge its loss to this foe.
French wunderkind Kylian Mbappé continues to be dominant on the PSG offensive front, racking up a league-best 18 goals so far in league play. Defensively, the Parisians have been sound, conceding just 19 goals in 29 league contests.
When comparing numbers with Lyon, PSG is nipping at its counterpart’s heels. The Parisians boast a stellar 62.2 xG and 30.8 xGA, generating a mediocre +31.4 xGDiff and +1.08 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Picks
As I’ve noted above, this is such an even match on paper.
The Parisians have been rock solid away from Parc des Princes as of late. However, they’re facing a Lyon outfit that’s been virtually unbeatable the entire league campaign.
You would think something would have to give in this latest meeting, but I don’t see either club having a distinct advantage over the other. For that reason, I am taking a swing on the draw at close to +300 odds as my top pick.
I will also play the total to stay under the alternative number of 3.25 goals. Combine the fact PSG has kept a clean sheet in five of their last seven road tilts with the fact there have been two goals or less in Lyon’s last three league games, and you have to like your chances with this wager.
Picks: Draw +275 | Total Under 3.25 Goals (-141)