English Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: Sheffield United vs. Chelsea (Sunday, Feb. 7)

Sheffield United vs. Chelsea Odds

Liverpool versus Manchester City is the highlight of Sunday's Premier League schedule, but the action doesn't end there. Sheffield United will host Chelsea in the final match of the day, before you turn your attention to the Super Bowl.

And it's a more interesting match than the table suggests.

Here's a closer look at the two clubs, followed by my favorite bet.

Sheffield United

Sheffield United had to wait a very long time to pick up their first win. It took nearly half a season, before they finally beat Newcastle 1-0 on Jan. 12. But they've now won three of their past five matches, including a shocking 2-1 victory at Manchester United, and another 2-1 win at home against West Brom this past Tuesday.

The Blades are still bottom of the table and a long way from safety — 11 points behind 17th-place Burnley, and having played a game more. But they're only a point behind West Brom and three behind Fulham, their fellow relegation-zone residers. Some small solace at least.

The two matches Sheffield United have lost in their past five outings are nothing to be embarrassed about, either. Last weekend they fell 1-0 at Manchester City, conceding just 1.2 expected goals to the league leaders. The previous weekend they suffered a 3-1 defeat at home to Tottenham, a scoreline that flattered Spurs — in terms of xG, it was only 1.2 to 0.7.

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Chelsea

The "new manager bounce" clearly seems to be in effect at Chelsea. After a scoreless draw against Wolves in Thomas Tuchel's first game in charge after replacing Frank Lampard, Chelsea have recorded back-to-back wins over Burnley (2-0) and Tottenham (1-0).

Yes, that's three clean sheets in a row — and it's no fluke. Chelsea have conceded 0.4 xG or less in each of those three matches, and are up to sixth place in the table.

Chelsea have only scored three goals in three matches under Tuchel, who has been tinkering with lineups and formations. And one of those, the only goal against Tottenham, was a Jorginho penalty kick. But they are trending upwards in terms of expected goals — beginning with just 0.7 against Wolves, followed by 1.3 against Burnley and 2.3 against Spurs.

Betting Analysis & Picks

Chelsea beat Sheffield United 4-1 at Stamford Bridge on Nov. 7, but in terms of expected goals, it was only 2.7 to 0.6. And that came under Lampard, when Chelsea matches tended to be more wide open, at both ends.

Things look much more under control under Tuchel. Of course Chelsea will eventually concede another goal, but it doesn't look very likely to happen in this match.  Sheffield United have scored just 14 goals in 22 matches this season — only Burnley have scored fewer (13).

On the other side, that 3-1 loss to Tottenham was the only time in Sheffield United's past nine matches that they've conceded more than two goals. And they've limited both Manchester clubs to one goal apiece in the past couple weeks.

With Chelsea still very much a work in progress offensively, I'll take the under at close to even money.

Pick: Under 2.5 goals (-106)