Sheffield United vs. Spurs Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Jan. 17
Stu Forster/Getty Images. Pictured: Sheffield United’s Ben Osborn against Newcastle.
- Sheffield United hosts Tottenham Hotspur in Premier League action Sunday at Bramall Lane.
- Can the Blades pick up their second win of the season in this showdown against mighty Spurs?
- Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the match and gives his top play below.
Sheffield United vs. Spurs Odds
|Sheffield United Odds||+540 [BET NOW]|
|Spurs Odds||-180 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+300 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+105/-130) [BET NOW]|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9:15 a.m. ET|
Sheffield United picked up its first win of the season in its 18th match on Tuesday as the Blades defeated 10-man Newcastle 1-0.
Spurs dropped points in the midweek at home against Fulham, dropping two more points from a winning position and leaving plenty of questions for manager José Mourinho as his side have failed to hold leads all season.
No team in the Premier League has spent more time tied with their opponents than Sheffield United, who have had a historically bad start to the season.
With just five points from 18 matches, the Blades will almost certainly be relegated. But their recent performances don’t suggest that they’ve quit.
They put in a good performance at Manchester United, nearly finding a late equalizer. They outplayed Everton before losing late and bossed Newcastle and won on a penalty.
Sheffield’s xG numbers suggest they aren’t even the worst team in the league, and my numbers make them No. 18 in the power ratings.
The Blades have struggled, but their underlying numbers have marginally improved over time. Their xG/shot numbers have improved, and no team is underperforming their xGF numbers in the league more than Sheffield United.
Even when the Blades were in terrible form last year, they caused problems for Spurs in this fixture, winning 3-0 when Tottenham were similarly overpriced.
Ask any Spurs fan, they’ll tell you that Spurs’ draw against Fulham felt more like a loss.
Spurs played one of their best halves of the season in the first half of the match and finished the game with 3.14 xG. Spurs have been the league’s biggest xG overperformers in attack all year, specifically Heung-min Son.
Son had 1.5 xG himself in the Fulham match, but missed three huge chances. It came back to hurt Spurs, as they conceded a goal off a header and settled for the 1-1 draw.
Son’s been a streaky finisher his entire career, going through absurd hot runs and prolonged cold spells. The South Korean forward could be entering a cold patch given recent matches, which would be a bad sign for Spurs, who rely so heavily on him and Harry Kane.
With that being said, there are reasons to be encouraged about Spurs’ last two league performances. They’ve dominated xG in both (Leeds and Fulham) and kept attacking deep into the games.
But the second half trend on Tottenham to sit off their opponents and protect their leads makes them difficult to bet as a favorite, as they are in this match.
Mourinho’s style makes him great to back as an underdog, but laying a big spread here is dangerous given Spurs’ — a top five team by xG — are playing their opponents’ dead even in second halves.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Given Spurs’ recent performances, I have little faith in their ability to get margin, and don’t see them winning this game by more than one goal.
I project Spurs at -135 on the money line, but see value in backing Sheffield United +1. Sheffield’s historically bad results make them cheaper here than they should be.
If you don’t get in on the Blades before the game, it would be worth hopping in live on Sheffield United if they concede first, given Spurs’ conservative tendencies with leads.
Pick: Sheffield United +1 (-120 or better)
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