Napoli vs. Inter Milan: Sunday Serie A Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (April 18)
Andrea Staccioli/Insidefoto/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Romelu Lukaku.
- Inter Milan continue their chase toward a Serie A title on Sunday against Napoli.
- Napoli presents a difficult matchup for Inter and are fighting for a Champinos League spot in the Italian top flight.
- Anthony Dabbundo breaks down where he sees betting value in this matchup.
Napoli vs. Inter Milan Odds
|Inter Milan Odds||+143|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-104 / -120)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 2:45 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings|
Inter Milan is poised to end Juventus’ nine-year run as Serie A champions, with Antonio Conte’s men needing just 16 points from their final eight league matches to lock up the Scudetto. It’ll likely be even less than that as their closest competition drops points.
Inter is cruising to the title with an almost insurmountable 11-point lead on top. They’ve built their lead by winning 11 straight league games and have the second best expected goal difference numbers while doing it. There’s very little fluky about how good this Inter team is, but this is a good sell-high spot against a Napoli team desperate for a Champions League spot.
Napoli manager Gennaro Gattuso is coaching for his job, and he may need three points to keep his team in contention with AC Milan, Juventus and Atalanta for the final Serie A Champions League place.
Teams have had very little success trying to pressure Napoli, as Gattuso’s side allows the lowest rate of successful pressures against in Serie A. Conte is going to set Inter up in his traditional 3-5-2 formation, sit in a mid-block and look to break down Napoli in transition.
But Napoli has been pretty effective at preventing this. Inter don’t generate a ton of tackles or pressures per 90 and Napoli don’t allow much of this.
The result, by game state, probably leads to Napoli controlling the ball and game flow at home. They’ll have more possession, which is fine for Inter and Conte, who will be happy to sit off a bit and invite pressure.
Napoli lead Serie A in shots per 90 minutes and rank third in shot distance from the goal. The result tends to be that Napoli will get more shots than their opponents too, and it becomes a matter of creating one or two high-quality looks or scoring from distance.
Inter have the fourth fewest tackles won in the opposition’s attacking third in the division and rank middle of the pack in possession rate.
What makes Inter so good? Their crosses, of which they’ve convert the second most into the penalty area per match. That won’t be as easy in this one becuase Napoli is an elite crossing defense with Kostas Manolas and Kalidou Koulibaly in the middle of Gattuso’s back four.
Inter’s defense is excellent and conceding low-quality chances while the attack creates consistently the best chances in the league. There’s long-term concerns about this Inter midfield’s age and performance, but their defense and attack are elite at maximizing their own opportunities and minimizing the opponents’.
Napoli’s defense ranks in the upper half of the league in allowing high-quality chances, so they should be able to shut off clear chances for Inter strikers Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez.
Napoli saw a dip in form in late January and early February, but Gattuso’s side has picked it up again. Except for a disappointing midweek loss to Juventus, Napoli has earned deserved wins against Bologna, Roma, Milan, Crotone and Sampdoria.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Inter is the better team in this matchup, but they’re away from home and have much less to play for than the hosts.
My projections have these teams exactly even on 1.35 expected goals, so I will take the underdog here at plus money, if it’s +110 or better. Napoli has shown an ability to prevent Inter from getting out in transition in the past and could be effective at using its team speed to expose Inter’s aging squad.
Teams like Borussia Monchengladbach and Real Madrid have been able to get at this Inter side in Europe, and Napoli can find success in a similar way. Inter won’t get as many clear looks from crosses and won’t apply enough pressure to force errors from Napoli, either.
Pick: Napoli draw no bet (+110 or better)
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