Barcelona vs. Granada Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction: Back Barça to Win Big (April 29)

Barcelona vs. Granada Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction: Back Barça to Win Big (April 29) article feature image
Credit:

Aitor Alcalde/Getty Images. Pictured: Antione Griezmann and Lionel Messi.

  • Barcelona continues its quest for another La Liga title on Thursday when it takes on Granada.
  • Granada sits ninth in the league table, but has played much worse than its place in the standings, having only won five matches this year.
  • Even with a spread of -3 at plus money, BJ Cunningham still thinks taking Barcelona to cover is a smart bet.

Barcelona vs. Granada Odds

Barcelona Odds -770
Granada Odds +1800
Draw +750
Over/Under 3.5 (-121 / -103)
Day | Time Thursday | 1 p.m. ET
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Odds updated Wednesday afternoon via DraftKings.

Barcelona continues its La Liga title campaign Thursday when it hosts Granada at Camp Nou.

Barcelona has completely turned its season around after a difficult start. The Spanish giant now controls its own destiny, as it’s two points behind La Liga leader Atlético Madrid with a game in hand.

The Spanish power has a title-deciding match against Atlético next weekend, but needs to take care of business against Granada and Valencia on Sunday to make sure that match actually means something.

Granada is on the cusp of finishing in the top half of the table for the second consecutive season since its promotion to the top flight. However, it has been in a bad run of form over the past few months, with only four wins in its last 14 matches in La Liga play. The club has also struggled away from home, with only three wins in 16 tries, so this match could get ugly.

Barcelona

Barcelona’s dominance since the start of 2021 was mainly due to the fact that it was beating up on lesser competition, as only two matches have come against the current top four.

However, its underlying metrics are really impressive, as Barcelona has registered up a +22.45 expected-goals differential since the new year, according to Understat.

The powerhouse has been scoring goals in bunches this season, averaging a league-leading 2.26 xG per match. Messi, himself, is having another dominant year. He is currently the top goal scorer in the Spanish top flight with 25 goals already this season.

Barcelona has been incredibly dominant in La Liga when it’s not facing Atlético Madrid, Real Madrid or Sevilla. In 27 matches versus teams outside the top four, Barcelona has created 64.06 xG and only allowed 29.62 xG so far.

The club dominated Granada earlier this season, earning a 4-0 road win, so I expect Barcelona to cruise to victory.

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Granada

Despite being in ninth place, Granada is actually really struggling in La Liga this season. The Nasrids only have five wins since the start of the year, having really struggled on the road all season long.

Granada is 0-4-1 away from Camp Nou when facing teams ahead of it in the table, getting outscored by a 16-5 margin. The Nasrids’ xG record is also pretty horrific on the road, as they have a -16.20 xGD in only 16 away matches.

The biggest issue for Granada is that it’s desperately struggling to create chances in front of net. For the season, Granada is only averaging 1.07 xG per match, which will not work against a powerful side like Barcelona.

Additionally, the Nasrids are allowing 1.75 xG per match in their last five games, so they need to drastically improve if they’re going to hang with Barcelona.


Betting Analysis & Pick

I think Barcelona should cruise to victory, giving this match all of its focus since it basically needs to to win out to capture the La Liga title.

Therefore, I am going to back Barcelona’s spread of minus-3 at a juicy price of +180 odds via DraftKings as my top pick.

Pick: Barcelona -3 (+180)

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