A-League Soccer Odds and Betting Preview: Western Sydney Wanderers vs. Sydney FC

Credit:

Jason McCawley/Getty Images. Pictured: Adam Le Fondre

Mar 20, 2020, 10:38 PM EDT

Sydney FC at Western Sydney Wanderers Odds

  • Sydney FC odds: +106
  • Western Sydney Wanderers: +245
  • Draw: +245
  • Over/Under: 2.5 (-148/+118)
  • Time: Saturday, 4 a.m. ET

Odds as of Thursday at 10:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Can’t you hear, can’t you hear that thunder?

Amidst all the chaos, Australian sports are pressing on. We don’t know for how long, the Australian Football League kicked off its season on Thursday without crowds but didn’t commit to anything past Round 1, but I’d be damned if I didn’t appreciate the moxie of our friends Down Under. I’m sure the Aussies are being quite careful and will shut down once the situation calls for it, but right now it’s a welcome distraction to get lost for a moment and think about an actual game — even if it’s on the opposite side of the world.

The Hyundai A-League is the top flight of Australian soccer. The league features 10 teams from Australia and one from New Zealand. Sydney FC are the current pace-setters with 47 points from 19 games. The Sky Blues were 10 points clear of Melbourne City FC with two games in hand at the time of writing. The top six teams in the A-League make the playoffs with the No. 1 and 2 seeds getting a bye.

Sydney FC will look to take another step towards securing the No. 1 seed in the A-League with a win over their rivals, Western Sydney Wanderers, on Saturday. The Wanderers come into Saturday’s derby in eighth place with 25 points from 20 games and a -3 goal differential.

Western Sydney boasts a pedestrian statistical profile in 2020. The Wanderers allow .15 more goals per 90 than they score (1.45 to 1.3) and they average the third-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes in the A-League. Western Sydney’s expected goals (xG) are basically on-par with their actual output. The Wanders create 1.38 xG/90 and allow 1.62 xGA/90.

Sydney FC’s numbers are much stronger on the surface, but the Sky Blues are boosted some finishing talent. Not only does Sydney FC have Milos Ninkovic, the best player in the league, but the Sky Blues also boast the league’s top goal-scorer, Adam le Fondre.

Sydney FC boasts the best defense in the league, averaging 0.79 goals against per 90 minutes. However, the Sky Blues’ expected goals suggest they should be giving up 1.6 goals a game. That being said, Sydney FC has conceded just two goals in its last six games, so it seems like the defense comes into this match in fine form.

That, blended with Western Sydney’s not-so-impressive offense, is leading me to a bet on the road favorites and the Under 2.5.

The Pick: Sydney FC (+106); Under 2.5 goals (+118)

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Follow Michael J. Leboff on Twitter
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