Liverpool (5-1-0) and Chelsea (2-2-2) will face off today at 12:30 p.m. EDT at Stamford Bridge in London, England.
Liverpool is favored at a +125 price, with the over/under set at 3.5 (+125o / -175u) goals.
Let's get into my Liverpool vs. Chelsea prediction.
Liverpool vs. Chelsea Prediction
Picks: Both Teams To Score – Yes & Over 2.5 Goals
My Liverpool vs. Chelsea best bets are on both teams to score and Over 2.5 total goals in this match.
Liverpool vs. Chelsea Odds
| Liverpool Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +115 | 3.5 125o / -175u | +125 |
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -165 | 3.5 125o / -175u | +190 |
Liverpool vs. Chelsea Picks, Parlay
Leg 1: Both Teams To Score – Yes (-200) & Over 2.5 Goals (-188)
Leg 2: Over 34.5 Match Throws (-125)
Leg 3: Both Teams To Score in the Second Half (+162)
Since the start of last season, Liverpool has scored an average of 2.23 goals per Premier League game, 0.28 more than Manchester City, who have the second most potent attack in the division.
Chelsea’s recent league matches have also seen plenty of goals. Our selection has won in four of its last five contests, averaging 3.8 goals per game. The Blues’ last Premier League game was a 3-1 defeat to Brighton at Stamford Bridge. Both teams created an abundance of chances, and there was a total xG of 4.09. It should be a similar story when Enzo Maresca’s side takes on Liverpool.
Both Blues and Reds scored, and there were at least three goals in both head-to-heads between these sides last season. There should be a heap of scoring opportunities when they lock horns this weekend.
Another favorite bet is throw-ins. The 38.2 throw-ins per 90 minutes average this season, after 60 games, is a step up from the 32.9 throws per match in 2024/25. There’s an undeniable uplift in throws. It’s a data trend that continues each matchweek, keeping the current average totals closer to 40 than 30.
We will also look at second-half goals. This season, Liverpool’s games have been synonymous with late scoring. Looking at its six Premier League games, late goals were scored in five of them.
Arne Slot’s team averages 1.17 goals after the 85th-minute mark. This makes for 42% of all goals in Liverpool’s games.
Interestingly, the Reds also conceded the most in the second half. The difference is stark, with an average of 0.17 goals conceded in the first half and 1.0 in the second. In other words, if this game meets the average, we expect both teams to score in the second half.
Liverpool vs. Chelsea Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Liverpool | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 52.7% | 20.1% | 27.2% |
Projected Total Goals
| Liverpool | Total Goals | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 1.90 | 3.29 | 1.39 |
Liverpool vs. Chelsea Betting Analysis
Despite their defensive struggles, Liverpool remains a force, largely thanks to the quality of their attacking play. Mohamed Salah, Florian Wirtz, and Alexander Isak are among the world’s best offensive players.
Chelsea also offers plenty going forward, although they will have to do without their star player, Cole Palmer, who is ailing from a groin injury. The Blues depend now on the playmaking ability of Enzo Fernandez, whose leadership on and off the ball has been crucial.
Fernandez’s ability to contribute in the final third has been key, highlighted by his involvement in 16 goals across 27 appearances.
This match could have huge significance in the title race, even though the season is still in its infancy. Liverpool has a two-point lead at the top, but last weekend’s defeat means they are now second-favorites with the bookmakers. Chelsea, on the other hand, is seven points behind the leaders.
Liverpool allows the fewest passes per defensive action in the league this season, with 8.12. Chelsea ranks third, with 8.47. With both teams committed to aggressive pressing, expect to see some nervy moments in the build-up.
Two consecutive defeats against Crystal Palace and Galatasaray might have halted the momentum and the feel-good factor in Liverpool’s camp. However, a win against Chelsea, away at Stamford Bridge, would certainly appease the travelling Reds. The odds compilers have priced the away team as the 2.25/+1.25 favorites in the Chelsea vs Liverpool odds.
Liverpool vs. Chelsea Projected Starting Lineups
Liverpool
Mamardashvili; Bradley, van Dijk, Konate, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Salah, Szoboszlai, Gakpo; Isak.
Chelsea
Sanchez; James, Badiashile, Hato, Cucurella; Caicedo, Lavia; Estevao, Fernandez, Neto; Joao Pedro.
