World Cup quarterfinal action wraps up on Saturday with England taking on Sweden and Croatia playing host Russia.
Here’s a breakdown of the market for both matches and which sides the sharps/public are betting:
England vs. Sweden (10 a.m. ET)
Moneyline Odds: England -109, Sweden +412, Draw +230
Odds to Advance: England -225, Sweden +195
England is the favorite to advance to the semifinal in their side of the bracket, but will have to get through Sweden in the quarterfinal first. Nearly half of moneyline tickets are on England to win in regulation, but odds have moved toward both Sweden and the draw.
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Sweden has received the majority of tickets to cover the spread of +0.5 goals, meaning they can either win or draw to cash the bet. The spread of -0.5 for England is exactly the same as taking the moneyline at -109 odds, so it makes sense to see more wagers on Sweden for this type of bet.
Public bettors are just about split on the total of 2 goals, and we’ve hardly seen any movement so far. This is one of the few matches where the overwhelming majority isn’t on the over.
Croatia vs. Russia (2 p.m. ET)
Moneyline Odds: Croatia +124, Russia +298, Draw +210
Odds to Advance: Croatia -175, Russia +160
Moneyline bettors have hopped right back on the Croatia train even though they needed extra time to beat Denmark in the round of 16. With more than 64% of public bets and a little bit of sharper money, they’ve moved from +130 to +124 to beat Russia in regulation.
The draw has been the least popular with just 12% of bets, which has been the case in nearly every World Cup game. This strategy has worked for public bettors, as the draw has been the least profitable bet throughout the tourney.
More than 80% of betting tickets are on the over (2), but the juice has trended toward the under. This has been a common theme during the tournament, especially in the knockout rounds, where sharper bettors think goals will be harder to come by.