Moscow Liga Pro Table Tennis Odds, Picks: Tuesday Night Slate Breakdown

My once pristine table tennis betting career has gone south in a hurry. Yesterday's picks were almost immaculately wrong, as I went 0-3 and was out-set 9-1. Not even close.

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Below are my in-house hand-made metrics. I'll tell you one thing, my losses yesterday did not come from a lack of effort. I challenge you to find a more comprehensive breakdown of Moscow Liga Pro table tennis stats out there.

SPM & OSPM refer to sets per match and opponents sets per match, which help show a player's skill better than their record does, in my opinion. You can use those to find each player's differential, which is similar to point/run differentials that you'd see in baseball or football.

* = less than 50 matches played

Below are odds for each match in the 4 p.m. slate, along with head-to-head records, breakdowns and picks for matches that I feel have the biggest edge. If you're looking to bet some of the other matches I didn't write about, you can use the stats above to help decide which side to take.

A. Gribkov vs. B Grebenyuk

• Gribkov: -250
• Grebenyuk: +175
• 4 p.m. ET
• H2H: 2-0 Gribkov (+2.0 SPM)

I've learned to respect the H2H numbers, and while 2-0 is really too small of a sample to go off of, there are other things to consider here.

Grebenyuk has just 16 matches under his MLP belt thus far, and newbies tend to struggle from what I've gathered.

Meanwhile, Gribkov is a grizzled vet who has fared decently well over his past 50 matches and over the past few days. It's a hefty price to pay, but sometimes you just need to fade these rookies until they prove they can play.

V. Petrov vs. K. Abramov

• Petrov: +310
• Abramov: -500
• 4 p.m. ET
• H2H: Abramov 3-0 (+2.67 SPM)

D. Sayanov vs. V. Nemashkalo

• Sayanov: -167
• Nemashkalo: +120
• 4 p.m. ET
• H2H: Sayanov 7-5 (+0.17 SPM)

A. Petrov vs. E. Ilyuhkin

• Petrov: -250
• Ilyukhin: +175
• 4:30 p.m. ET
• H2H: Petrov 19-4 (+1.3 SPM)

Just looking at those H2H numbers, you'd probably auto-bet Petrov at -250. However, Petrov snuck out a 3-2 win vs. Ilyukhin this morning and lost to him yesterday. Perhaps Ilyukhin is beginning to figure out his kryptonite. I'll hold off with that in mind.

V. Safonov vs. A. Kirilenko

• Safonov: N/A
• Kirileko: N/A
• 4:30 p.m. ET
• H2H: Kirilenko 3-1 (+0.5 SPM)

V. Shirokov vs. D. Merzlikin

• Shirokov: +140
• Merzlikin: -200
• 4:30 p.m. ET
• H2H: Merzlikin 3-2 (+0.2 SPM)

K. Abramov vs. V. Shirokov

• Abramov: -200
• Shirokov: +140
• 5 p.m. ET
• H2H: Abramov 3-2 (+0.6 SPM)

With Shirokov playing so terribly as of late, I was debating between fading him in this match or the one listed above vs. Merzlikin. I'm going to opt for this one given Abramov's slightly better H2H numbers, but they are very similar options.

Both Abramov and Merzlikin have similar overall and recent numbers, with each beating Shirokov 3-0 in two consecutive matches. I think either one is a solid choice, but will officially go with Abramov.

B. Grebenyuk vs. V. Safonov

• Grebenyuk: N/A
• Safonov: N/A
• 5 p.m. ET
• H2H: Safonov 3-2 (+0.6 SPM)

V. Nemashkalo vs. A. Petrov

• Nemashkalo: +100
• Petrov: -139
• 5 p.m. ET
• H2H: Petrov 16-11 (+0.74 SPM)

E. Ilyukhin vs. D. Sayanov

• Ilyukhin: -228
• Sayanov:+160
• 5:30 p.m. ET
• H2H: Ilyukhin 8-4 (+0.92 SPM)

A. Kirilenko vs. A Gribkov

• Kirilenko: -250
• Gribkov: +175
• 5:30 p.m. ET
• H2H: Kirilenko 4-1 (+1.0 SPM)

D. Merzlikin vs. V. Petrov

• Merzlikin: -118
• Petrov: -118
• 5:30 p.m. ET
• H2H: Petrov 3-2 (+0.2 SPM)

Petrov has the slight head-to-head edge, but Merzlikin could soon be one of the best players on the tour (like I know what I'm talking about.)

While many newcomers struggle out of the gate, he has done anything but. His 9-7 record since May 3 isn't amazing, but the sets per match differential of +0.69 suggest he should be even better.

Meanwhile, Petrov has been lucky. His 28-22 record is pretty solid, but he's barely beating his opponents when you look at sets per match. Same goes for the past few days, in which he's 7-5, but is dead even in number of sets.

I'm going to back the up-and-comer in this pick' em.

A. Gribkov vs. V. Safonov

• Gribkov: N/A
• Safonov: N/A
• 6 p.m. ET
• H2H: Split 9-9 (0.0 SPM differential)

V. Petrov vs. V. Shirokov

• Petrov: -139
• Shirokov: +100
• 6 p.m. ET
• H2H: Shirokov 16-15 (+0.38 SPM)

D. Sayanov vs. A. Petrov

• Sayanov: -118
• Petrov: -118
• 6 p.m. ET
• H2H: Petrov 7-5 (+0.17 SPM)

K. Abramov vs. D. Merzlikin

• Abramov: -139
• Merzlikin: +100
• 6:30 p.m. ET
• H2H: 4-4 split (Merzlikin +0.13 SPM)

Battle of the hot hands! I think this is a legitimate toss-up, but unfortunately we're not getting an actual plus-money price on Merzlikin to make it worth our while.

I definitely wouldn't lay -139 on Abramov, so if you want to bet on this match, I would go Merzlikin or nothing.

B. Grebenyuk vs. A. Kirilenko

• Grebenyuk: +210
• Kirilenko: -304
• 6:30 p.m. ET
• H2H: Kirilenko 4-0 (+1.67 SPM)

Nothing like ending the day with a gigantic favorite. You'll literally never see me back a -250 or -300 favorite in a sport like baseball or hockey, but this isn't baseball or hockey, is it?

AK47, the man who ended the promising 4-0 start to my table tennis betting career, has been en fuego lately.

As mentioned before, Grebenyuk has been el frio de hielo (poor translation of ice cold). Kirilenko is taking him to the woodshed every time they play one another and I expect that to continue.

V. Nemashkalo vs. E. Ilyukhin

• Nemashkalo: +175
• Ilyukhin: -250
• 6:30 p.m. ET
• H2H: Ilyukhin 21-6 (+1.29 SPM)

Pick Summary

• A. Gribkov (-250) over B. Grebenyuk 
• K. Abramov (-200) over V. Shirokov
• D. Merzlikin (-118) over V. Petrov
• A. Kirilenko (-304) vs. B Grebenyuk